MARIST
RED FOXESMRST
13-7 | Road
88
CANISIUS
GOLDEN GRIFFINSCAN
8-13 | Home
86
AI Model Win Probability
RED FOXES
0%
GOLDEN GRIFFINS
100%
RED FOXES
--
GOLDEN GRIFFINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
145.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+9.0
CANISIUS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around CAN +9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CAN)
MRST By 1-7 points
24.3%
MRST By 8-14 points
26.8%
CAN By 1-7 points
12.2%
CAN By 8-14 points
4.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Marist
77
MARIST
Canisius
68
CANISIUS
Simulated Score
Marist
68
MARIST
Canisius
72
CANISIUS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Red Foxes
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Golden Griffins
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Golden Griffins (+9.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +9.0
D
Sim
Golden Griffins (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o128.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Sim
u128.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 30, 2026
MRST @ CAN
88 - 86
Feb 21, 2025
CAN @ MRST
81 - 89
Jan 25, 2025
MRST @ CAN
70 - 47
Feb 16, 2024
CAN @ MRST
55 - 78
Jan 28, 2024
MRST @ CAN
80 - 71
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+20.2% more
Marist: 15.4
vs
Canisius: 12.3
Free Throw % (L5)
+16.7%
Marist: 79.3%
vs
Canisius: 62.6%
Field Goal % (L5)
+7.3%
Marist: 45.3%
vs
Canisius: 38.0%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+1.5%
Marist: 30.8%
vs
Canisius: 29.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MRST Score
77.0
88
CAN Score
68.0
86
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
29.2 / 30.8
33.0 / 31.0
Assists
12.3 / 15.4
15.0 / 15.0
Blocks
3.2 / 3.2
2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
38.0 / 45.3
48.0 / 56.0
Free Throw %
62.6 / 79.3
62.0 / 82.0
Rebounding
36.6 / 32.0
33.0 / 34.0
Steals
6.4 / 5.2
5.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
11.6 / 10.9
13.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MRST
Advantage
19-12-0
(61.3%)
Margin: 5.8
ATS +/-: +1.6
CAN
10-21-0
(32.3%)
Margin: -7.5
ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MRST
Advantage
15-13-1
(53.6%)
Margin: 5.8
ATS +/-: +1.6
CAN
13-16-0
(44.8%)
Margin: -7.5
ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
MRST
11-18-0
O: 37.9% / U: 62.1%
Total +/-: -3.0
CAN
8-21-0
O: 27.6% / U: 72.4%
Total +/-: -3.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CAN
MRST
CAN
MRST
ML
55%
17-14
55%
17-14
68%
21-10
61%
19-12
ATS
65%
20-11
74%
23-8
68%
21-10
61%
19-12
TTL
58%
18-13
52%
16-15
100%
31-0
100%
31-0
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