OKLAHOMA CITY
THUNDEROKC
38-10 | Road
111
MINNESOTA
TIMBERWOLVESMIN
29-19 | Home
123
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDER
100%
TIMBERWOLVES
0%
THUNDER
--
TIMBERWOLVES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
253.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Minnesota)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIN -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)
OKC By 1-7 points
24.3%
OKC By 8-14 points
13.7%
MIN By 1-7 points
26.2%
MIN By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Oklahoma City
126
OKLAHOMA CITY
Minnesota
127
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
Oklahoma City
115
OKLAHOMA CITY
Minnesota
118
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Timberwolves
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Timberwolves
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Timberwolves (+5.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Timberwolves (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o227.5
Win
Proj Total: 253.0
D
Sim
u227.5
Win
Proj Total: 233.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 15, 2026
MIN @ OKC
103 - 116
Jan 29, 2026
OKC @ MIN
111 - 123
Dec 19, 2025
OKC @ MIN
107 - 112
Nov 26, 2025
MIN @ OKC
105 - 113
May 28, 2025
MIN @ OKC
94 - 124
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+85.4% more
Minnesota: 11.0
vs
Oklahoma City: 5.9
Turnovers (L5)
+34.1% more
Minnesota: 16.6
vs
Oklahoma City: 12.4
Assists (L5)
+9.6% more
Minnesota: 25.6
vs
Oklahoma City: 23.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+3.5%
Minnesota: 36.7%
vs
Oklahoma City: 33.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
OKC Score
126.0
111
MIN Score
127.0
123
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.7 / 33.1
47.0 / 35.0
Assists
25.6 / 23.3
26.0 / 27.0
Blocks
7.0 / 7.1
7.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
45.2 / 46.0
51.0 / 48.0
Free Throw %
74.1 / 82.6
61.0 / 90.0
Rebounding
47.2 / 44.4
46.0 / 36.0
Steals
11.0 / 5.9
12.0 / 11.0
Turnovers
16.6 / 12.4
20.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OKC
Advantage
75-22-0
(77.3%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
MIN
55-39-0
(58.5%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OKC
Advantage
47-50-0
(48.4%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
MIN
42-52-0
(44.7%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
OKC
MIN
OKC
ML
54%
63-53
70%
80-34
54%
50-43
48%
46-49
ATS
58%
67-49
73%
83-30-1
54%
50-43
48%
46-49
TTL
63%
72-43-1
67%
76-38
100%
93-0
100%
95-0
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