RICE
OWLSRICE
8-12 | Road
83
EAST CAROLINA
PIRATESECU
6-14 | Home
77
AI Model Win Probability
OWLS
0%
PIRATES
100%
OWLS
--
PIRATES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
98.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
RICE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Rice)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around RICE -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (RICE)
RICE By 1-7 points
25.3%
RICE By 8-14 points
26.2%
ECU By 1-7 points
13.7%
ECU By 8-14 points
4.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Rice
53
RICE
East Carolina
45
EAST CAROLINA
Simulated Score
Rice
68
RICE
East Carolina
73
EAST CAROLINA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Owls
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pirates
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Owls (-2.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim
Pirates (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u140.5
Loss
Proj Total: 98.0
D
Sim
u140.5
Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 14, 2026
ECU @ RICE
85 - 75
Jan 28, 2026
RICE @ ECU
83 - 77
Feb 5, 2025
RICE @ ECU
73 - 60
Feb 24, 2024
ECU @ RICE
52 - 70
Nov 24, 2019
ECU @ RICE
69 - 77
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+10.0%
Rice: 41.7%
vs
East Carolina: 31.7%
Steals (L5)
+9.7% more
Rice: 6.0
vs
East Carolina: 5.4
Field Goal % (L5)
+5.6%
Rice: 46.6%
vs
East Carolina: 41.1%
Blocks (L5)
+59.6% more
East Carolina: 5.7
vs
Rice: 3.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
RICE Score
53.0
83
ECU Score
45.0
77
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.7 / 41.7
21.0 / 43.0
Assists
11.2 / 11.9
15.0 / 14.0
Blocks
5.7 / 3.6
1.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
41.1 / 46.6
42.0 / 49.0
Free Throw %
67.3 / 68.4
88.0 / 60.0
Rebounding
37.2 / 34.5
34.0 / 36.0
Steals
5.4 / 6.0
5.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
11.9 / 11.4
9.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
RICE
Advantage
13-18-0
(41.9%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-: -1.4
ECU
11-20-0
(35.5%)
Margin: -5.9
ATS +/-: -2.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
RICE
Advantage
16-13-0
(55.2%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-: -1.4
ECU
12-18-0
(40.0%)
Margin: -5.9
ATS +/-: -2.5
⚖️ Over/Under
RICE
17-12-0
O: 58.6% / U: 41.4%
Total +/-: +2.4
ECU
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7%
Total +/-: +3.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ECU
RICE
ECU
RICE
ML
55%
17-14
53%
16-14
55%
17-14
53%
16-14
ATS
52%
16-15
60%
18-12
55%
17-14
53%
16-14
TTL
61%
19-12
77%
23-7
100%
31-0
100%
30-0
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