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ARIZONA STATE

SUN DEVILSASU

11-9  |  Road

76
FINAL
Tue, Jan 27 • 7:00 PM ET
Addition Financial Arena
View Odds Details →

UCF

KNIGHTSUCF

15-4  |  Home

79
AI Model Win Probability
SUN DEVILS
100%
📊
KNIGHTS
0%
SUN DEVILS --
KNIGHTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
169.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
UCF
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.0 points (UCF)
Sun DevilsASU (-3.5) 0 KnightsUCF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Sun Devils Cover

1.8%

Knights Cover

98.2%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UCF -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UCF)

ASU By 1-7 points

1.4%

ASU By 8-14 points

0.2%

UCF By 1-7 points

6.8%

UCF By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
74
ARIZONA STATE
95
UCF
Simulated Score
69
ARIZONA STATE
73
UCF
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Knights Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Knights Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Knights (-6.5) Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
D
Sim Knights (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o161.5 Loss
Proj Total: 169.0
D
Sim u161.5 Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 27, 2026 ASU @ UCF 76 - 79
Jan 14, 2025 UCF @ ASU 95 - 89
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +7.1%
UCF: 43.9% vs Arizona State: 36.8%
Free Throw % (L5) +4.8%
UCF: 74.7% vs Arizona State: 70.0%
Field Goal % (L5) +3.5%
UCF: 49.3% vs Arizona State: 45.7%
Blocks (L5) +38.6% more
Arizona State: 4.9 vs UCF: 3.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ASU Score 74.0 76
UCF Score 95.0 79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 43.9 / 36.8 32.0 / 43.0
Assists 15.8 / 15.9 16.0 / 13.0
Blocks 3.0 / 4.9 2.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 49.3 / 45.7 45.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 74.7 / 70.0 74.0 / 70.0
Rebounding 33.7 / 31.9 40.0 / 28.0
Steals 4.2 / 6.7 7.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 13.4 / 12.7 9.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
12%TICKETS88%
12%MONEY88%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
34%MONEY66%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
81%MONEY19%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ASU
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +0.9
UCF Advantage
21-12-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 2.3 ATS +/-: +1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ASU Advantage
20-12-1 (62.5%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +0.9
UCF
16-17-0 (48.5%)
Margin: 2.3 ATS +/-: +1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
ASU
16-17-0
O: 48.5% / U: 51.5% Total +/-: +0.2
UCF
13-20-0
O: 39.4% / U: 60.6% Total +/-: +1.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UCF
ASU
UCF
ASU
ML
55% 18-15
52% 17-16
65% 20-11
68% 21-10
ATS
55% 18-15
52% 17-16
65% 20-11
68% 21-10
TTL
61% 20-13
64% 21-12
100% 31-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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