CANISIUS
GOLDEN GRIFFINSCAN
8-12 | Road
55
FAIRFIELD
STAGSFAIR
12-9 | Home
61
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN GRIFFINS
100%
STAGS
0%
GOLDEN GRIFFINS
--
STAGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
137.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-35.0
FAIRFIELD
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +35.0 points (Fairfield)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around FAIR -35.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FAIR)
CAN By 1-7 points
0.0%
CAN By 8-14 points
0.0%
FAIR By 1-7 points
0.3%
FAIR By 8-14 points
1.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Canisius
51
CANISIUS
Fairfield
86
FAIRFIELD
Simulated Score
Canisius
68
CANISIUS
Fairfield
72
FAIRFIELD
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Stags
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Stags
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Stags (-10.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -35.0
D
Sim
Stags (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u141.5
Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Sim
u141.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 24, 2026
CAN @ FAIR
55 - 61
Jan 2, 2026
FAIR @ CAN
81 - 85
Jan 18, 2025
CAN @ FAIR
78 - 67
Mar 7, 2024
CAN @ FAIR
62 - 74
Jan 15, 2024
FAIR @ CAN
88 - 63
Key Model Drivers
Field Goal % (L5)
+6.1%
Fairfield: 44.6%
vs
Canisius: 38.5%
Blocks (L5)
+27.4% more
Canisius: 2.9
vs
Fairfield: 2.1
Free Throw % (L5)
+5.6%
Canisius: 74.9%
vs
Fairfield: 69.3%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+3.5%
Canisius: 34.9%
vs
Fairfield: 31.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CAN Score
51.0
55
FAIR Score
86.0
61
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.3 / 34.9
32.0 / 18.0
Assists
12.7 / 13.4
12.0 / 10.0
Blocks
2.1 / 2.9
5.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
44.6 / 38.5
42.0 / 37.0
Free Throw %
69.3 / 74.9
56.0 / 38.0
Rebounding
34.6 / 33.8
39.0 / 42.0
Steals
7.1 / 6.7
6.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
9.9 / 10.4
12.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CAN
10-21-0
(32.3%)
Margin: -7.5
ATS +/-: -0.5
FAIR
Advantage
21-13-0
(61.8%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: +0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CAN
13-16-0
(44.8%)
Margin: -7.5
ATS +/-: -0.5
FAIR
Advantage
15-18-0
(45.5%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: +0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
CAN
8-21-0
O: 27.6% / U: 72.4%
Total +/-: -3.6
FAIR
14-19-0
O: 42.4% / U: 57.6%
Total +/-: -0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FAIR
CAN
FAIR
CAN
ML
55%
18-15
55%
17-14
61%
20-13
68%
21-10
ATS
48%
16-17
65%
20-11
61%
20-13
68%
21-10
TTL
48%
16-17
58%
18-13
100%
33-0
100%
31-0
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