UC SANTA BARBARA
GAUCHOSUCSB
12-7 | Road
74
LONG BEACH STATE
BEACHLBSU
8-12 | Home
71
AI Model Win Probability
GAUCHOS
0%
BEACH
100%
GAUCHOS
--
BEACH
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
159.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
UC SANTA BARBARA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (UC Santa Barbara)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UCSB -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UCSB)
UCSB By 1-7 points
15.3%
UCSB By 8-14 points
25.3%
LBSU By 1-7 points
4.8%
LBSU By 8-14 points
1.1%
AI Model Projected Score
UC Santa Barbara
87
UC SANTA BARBARA
Long Beach State
72
LONG BEACH STATE
Simulated Score
UC Santa Barbara
74
UC SANTA BARBARA
Long Beach State
78
LONG BEACH STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Gauchos
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Beach
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Gauchos (+4.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Sim
Beach (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o143.5
Win
Proj Total: 159.0
D
Sim
u143.5
Win
Proj Total: 152.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 24, 2026
UCSB @ LBSU
74 - 71
Dec 4, 2025
LBSU @ UCSB
77 - 84
Feb 22, 2025
UCSB @ LBSU
58 - 56
Feb 1, 2025
LBSU @ UCSB
54 - 85
Mar 7, 2024
UCSB @ LBSU
76 - 74
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+11.6% more
UC Santa Barbara: 16.4
vs
Long Beach State: 14.5
Field Goal % (L5)
+10.1%
UC Santa Barbara: 55.6%
vs
Long Beach State: 45.5%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+6.9%
UC Santa Barbara: 43.1%
vs
Long Beach State: 36.3%
Blocks (L5)
+92.2% more
Long Beach State: 3.7
vs
UC Santa Barbara: 1.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UCSB Score
87.0
74
LBSU Score
72.0
71
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.3 / 43.1
37.0 / 47.0
Assists
14.5 / 16.4
18.0 / 18.0
Blocks
3.7 / 1.9
2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
45.5 / 55.6
49.0 / 48.0
Free Throw %
76.1 / 76.4
88.0 / 69.0
Rebounding
32.4 / 32.4
25.0 / 31.0
Steals
6.8 / 7.2
5.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
13.7 / 11.3
8.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UCSB
Advantage
18-14-0
(56.3%)
Margin: 4.8
ATS +/-: -1.0
LBSU
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -2.9
ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UCSB
13-17-0
(43.3%)
Margin: 4.8
ATS +/-: -1.0
LBSU
Advantage
16-13-1
(55.2%)
Margin: -2.9
ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
UCSB
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7%
Total +/-: +3.1
LBSU
19-10-1
O: 65.5% / U: 34.5%
Total +/-: +4.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LBSU
UCSB
LBSU
UCSB
ML
55%
17-14
59%
19-13
65%
20-11
72%
23-9
ATS
68%
21-10
62%
20-12
65%
20-11
72%
23-9
TTL
61%
19-12
47%
15-17
100%
31-0
100%
32-0
