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UCF

KNIGHTSUCF

14-4  |  Road

95
FINAL
Sat, Jan 24 • 3:00 PM ET
CU Events Center
View Odds Details →

COLORADO

BUFFALOESCOLO

12-7  |  Home

86
AI Model Win Probability
KNIGHTS
100%
📊
BUFFALOES
0%
KNIGHTS --
BUFFALOES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
153.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-19.0
COLORADO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +19.0 points (Colorado)
KnightsUCF (-3.5) 0 BuffaloesCOLO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Knights Cover

2.9%

Buffaloes Cover

97.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around COLO -19.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COLO)

UCF By 1-7 points

2.2%

UCF By 8-14 points

0.4%

COLO By 1-7 points

9.3%

COLO By 8-14 points

20.1%

AI Model Projected Score
67
UCF
86
COLORADO
Simulated Score
70
UCF
75
COLORADO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Buffaloes Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Buffaloes Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Buffaloes (-3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -19.0
D
Sim Buffaloes (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u159.5 Loss
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Sim u159.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 24, 2026 UCF @ COLO 95 - 86
Feb 15, 2025 UCF @ COLO 63 - 76
Jan 8, 2025 COLO @ UCF 74 - 75
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +47.8% more
Colorado: 6.4 vs UCF: 4.4
Turnovers (L5) +44.3% more
UCF: 14.0 vs Colorado: 7.8
Blocks (L5) +27.8% more
UCF: 3.5 vs Colorado: 2.5
Free Throw % (L5) +5.5%
UCF: 78.6% vs Colorado: 73.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UCF Score 67.0 95
COLO Score 86.0 86
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.0 / 34.4 55.0 / 63.0
Assists 13.6 / 14.7 17.0 / 18.0
Blocks 2.5 / 3.5 1.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 40.6 / 43.4 52.0 / 61.0
Free Throw % 73.1 / 78.6 77.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 32.0 / 34.6 23.0 / 32.0
Steals 6.4 / 4.4 9.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 7.8 / 14.0 9.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
49%MONEY51%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
38%MONEY62%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
90%MONEY10%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UCF Advantage
21-12-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 2.3 ATS +/-: +1.2
COLO
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UCF
16-17-0 (48.5%)
Margin: 2.3 ATS +/-: +1.2
COLO Advantage
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
UCF
13-20-0
O: 39.4% / U: 60.6% Total +/-: +1.2
COLO
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5% Total +/-: +4.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COLO
UCF
COLO
UCF
ML
61% 20-13
55% 18-15
69% 22-10
65% 20-11
ATS
73% 24-9
55% 18-15
69% 22-10
65% 20-11
TTL
45% 15-18
61% 20-13
100% 32-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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