CALIFORNIA
GOLDEN BEARSCAL
14-5 | Road
78
STANFORD
CARDINALSTAN
14-5 | Home
66
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN BEARS
0%
CARDINAL
100%
GOLDEN BEARS
--
CARDINAL
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
137.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
CALIFORNIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (California)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around CAL -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CAL)
CAL By 1-7 points
27.2%
CAL By 8-14 points
23.0%
STAN By 1-7 points
18.6%
STAN By 8-14 points
8.0%
AI Model Projected Score
California
71
CALIFORNIA
Stanford
66
STANFORD
Simulated Score
California
73
CALIFORNIA
Stanford
79
STANFORD
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Golden Bears
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cardinal
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Golden Bears (-4.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim
Cardinal (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u146.5
Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Sim
u146.5
Win
Proj Total: 152.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 21, 2026
STAN @ CAL
66 - 72
Jan 24, 2026
CAL @ STAN
78 - 66
Mar 12, 2025
CAL @ STAN
73 - 78
Feb 22, 2025
CAL @ STAN
61 - 66
Dec 7, 2024
STAN @ CAL
89 - 81
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+21.1% more
California: 14.6
vs
Stanford: 11.5
Steals (L5)
+11.2% more
California: 6.7
vs
Stanford: 6.0
Free Throw % (L5)
+10.7%
California: 79.3%
vs
Stanford: 68.7%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+1.9%
California: 35.9%
vs
Stanford: 34.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CAL Score
71.0
78
STAN Score
66.0
66
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.0 / 35.9
19.0 / 40.0
Assists
11.5 / 14.6
9.0 / 7.0
Blocks
2.8 / 1.8
4.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
41.6 / 43.3
27.0 / 41.0
Free Throw %
68.7 / 79.3
77.0 / 80.0
Rebounding
29.4 / 31.8
43.0 / 41.0
Steals
6.0 / 6.7
7.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
12.4 / 10.9
7.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CAL
Advantage
22-12-0
(64.7%)
Margin: 4.9
ATS +/-: +1.4
STAN
20-13-0
(60.6%)
Margin: 3.0
ATS +/-: +0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CAL
Advantage
17-16-0
(51.5%)
Margin: 4.9
ATS +/-: +1.4
STAN
16-16-1
(50.0%)
Margin: 3.0
ATS +/-: +0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
CAL
15-18-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: +0.8
STAN
15-18-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STAN
CAL
STAN
CAL
ML
48%
16-17
61%
20-13
50%
16-16
77%
24-7
ATS
48%
16-17
64%
21-12
50%
16-16
78%
25-7
TTL
55%
18-15
70%
23-10
100%
32-0
100%
32-0
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