LSU
TIGERSLSU
13-6 | Road
81
ARKANSAS
RAZORBACKSARK
14-5 | Home
85
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
0%
RAZORBACKS
100%
TIGERS
--
RAZORBACKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
134.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
LSU
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (LSU)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around LSU -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LSU)
LSU By 1-7 points
16.9%
LSU By 8-14 points
26.2%
ARK By 1-7 points
5.8%
ARK By 8-14 points
1.4%
AI Model Projected Score
LSU
74
LSU
Arkansas
60
ARKANSAS
Simulated Score
LSU
73
LSU
Arkansas
78
ARKANSAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Tigers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Razorbacks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Tigers (-11.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim
Razorbacks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u163.5
Loss
Proj Total: 134.0
D
Sim
u163.5
Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 10, 2026
ARK @ LSU
91 - 62
Jan 24, 2026
LSU @ ARK
81 - 85
Feb 12, 2025
LSU @ ARK
58 - 70
Jan 14, 2025
ARK @ LSU
74 - 78
Mar 6, 2024
LSU @ ARK
83 - 94
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+66.8% more
Arkansas: 5.6
vs
LSU: 3.3
Assists (L5)
+53.2% more
Arkansas: 19.4
vs
LSU: 12.7
Steals (L5)
+30.1% more
Arkansas: 8.0
vs
LSU: 6.2
Rebounding (L5)
+13.5% more
Arkansas: 37.9
vs
LSU: 33.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
LSU Score
74.0
81
ARK Score
60.0
85
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.6 / 34.3
45.0 / 20.0
Assists
19.4 / 12.7
18.0 / 14.0
Blocks
5.6 / 3.3
3.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
51.0 / 44.5
57.0 / 46.0
Free Throw %
79.5 / 72.7
39.0 / 88.0
Rebounding
37.9 / 33.4
28.0 / 36.0
Steals
8.0 / 6.2
7.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
10.2 / 10.8
8.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LSU
--
ARK
Advantage
28-9-0
(75.7%)
Margin: 9.2
ATS +/-: +1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LSU
--
ARK
Advantage
23-14-0
(62.2%)
Margin: 9.2
ATS +/-: +1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
LSU
--
ARK
22-15-0
O: 59.5% / U: 40.5%
Total +/-: +8.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARK
LSU
ARK
LSU
ML
68%
25-12
62%
20-12
81%
25-6
62%
20-12
ATS
70%
26-11
66%
21-11
81%
25-6
62%
20-12
TTL
57%
21-16
72%
23-9
100%
31-0
100%
32-0
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