DENVER
NUGGETSDEN
30-15 | Road
102
MILWAUKEE
BUCKSMIL
18-25 | Home
100
AI Model Win Probability
NUGGETS
0%
BUCKS
100%
NUGGETS
--
BUCKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
225.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+3.0
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MIL +3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)
DEN By 1-7 points
27.2%
DEN By 8-14 points
20.1%
MIL By 1-7 points
21.6%
MIL By 8-14 points
10.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Denver
114
DENVER
Milwaukee
111
MILWAUKEE
Simulated Score
Denver
111
DENVER
Milwaukee
117
MILWAUKEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Nuggets
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bucks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bucks (+8.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +3.0
D
Sim
Bucks (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o213.5
Loss
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Sim
u213.5
Win
Proj Total: 228.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 23, 2026
DEN @ MIL
102 - 100
Jan 11, 2026
MIL @ DEN
104 - 108
Mar 26, 2025
MIL @ DEN
117 - 127
Feb 27, 2025
DEN @ MIL
112 - 121
Feb 12, 2024
DEN @ MIL
95 - 112
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+43.4% more
Denver: 5.3
vs
Milwaukee: 3.0
Free Throw % (L5)
+13.0%
Denver: 82.4%
vs
Milwaukee: 69.5%
Turnovers (L5)
+43.5% more
Milwaukee: 14.7
vs
Denver: 10.3
Assists (L5)
+12.1% more
Milwaukee: 27.0
vs
Denver: 24.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DEN Score
114.0
102
MIL Score
111.0
100
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
39.2 / 35.8
31.0 / 29.0
Assists
27.0 / 24.1
24.0 / 27.0
Blocks
3.0 / 5.3
8.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
47.2 / 45.5
40.0 / 40.0
Free Throw %
69.5 / 82.4
74.0 / 87.0
Rebounding
40.5 / 37.9
51.0 / 47.0
Steals
7.1 / 7.2
7.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
14.7 / 10.3
11.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN
Advantage
56-32-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
MIL
32-50-0
(39.0%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
MIL
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8%
Total +/-: +3.4
MIL
39-43-0
O: 47.6% / U: 52.4%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
DEN
MIL
DEN
ML
64%
61-35
54%
57-48
60%
49-32
55%
47-39
ATS
68%
65-31
63%
65-38-2
60%
49-32
55%
47-39
TTL
55%
53-43
54%
56-48-1
100%
81-0
100%
86-0
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