TENNESSEE STATE
TIGERSTNST
12-6 | Road
66
SIU EDWARDSVILLE
COUGARSSIUE
11-8 | Home
74
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
100%
COUGARS
0%
TIGERS
--
COUGARS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
176.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
SIU EDWARDSVILLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (SIU Edwardsville)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SIUE -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SIUE)
TNST By 1-7 points
16.9%
TNST By 8-14 points
6.8%
SIUE By 1-7 points
26.8%
SIUE By 8-14 points
24.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Tennessee State
85
TENNESSEE STATE
SIU Edwardsville
91
SIU EDWARDSVILLE
Simulated Score
Tennessee State
69
TENNESSEE STATE
SIU Edwardsville
73
SIU EDWARDSVILLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cougars
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cougars
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cougars (-1.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim
Cougars (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o143.5
Loss
Proj Total: 176.0
D
Sim
u143.5
Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 21, 2026
SIUE @ TNST
53 - 80
Jan 22, 2026
TNST @ SIUE
66 - 74
Mar 7, 2025
TNST @ SIUE
69 - 71
Feb 15, 2025
TNST @ SIUE
72 - 84
Jan 16, 2025
SIUE @ TNST
87 - 80
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+21.0% more
SIU Edwardsville: 11.2
vs
Tennessee State: 9.3
Blocks (L5)
+26.5% more
Tennessee State: 5.6
vs
SIU Edwardsville: 4.1
Assists (L5)
+15.6% more
Tennessee State: 16.0
vs
SIU Edwardsville: 13.5
Steals (L5)
+15.0% more
Tennessee State: 8.5
vs
SIU Edwardsville: 7.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TNST Score
85.0
66
SIUE Score
91.0
74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.1 / 38.1
41.0 / 18.0
Assists
13.5 / 16.0
18.0 / 8.0
Blocks
4.1 / 5.6
7.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
43.5 / 49.1
52.0 / 33.0
Free Throw %
64.7 / 71.4
68.0 / 82.0
Rebounding
33.9 / 36.1
35.0 / 40.0
Steals
7.2 / 8.5
4.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
11.2 / 9.3
13.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TNST
Advantage
23-10-0
(69.7%)
Margin: 5.9
ATS +/-: +3.8
SIUE
19-13-0
(59.4%)
Margin: 6.3
ATS +/-: +1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TNST
Advantage
18-11-1
(62.1%)
Margin: 5.9
ATS +/-: +3.8
SIUE
15-14-0
(51.7%)
Margin: 6.3
ATS +/-: +1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
TNST
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3%
Total +/-: +2.3
SIUE
11-18-0
O: 37.9% / U: 62.1%
Total +/-: -4.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SIUE
TNST
SIUE
TNST
ML
65%
20-11
52%
16-15
60%
18-12
63%
17-10
ATS
55%
17-14
68%
21-10
60%
18-12
64%
18-10
TTL
48%
15-16
52%
16-15
100%
30-0
100%
28-0
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