CAL POLY
MUSTANGSCP
7-12 | Road
67
UC SANTA BARBARA
GAUCHOSUCSB
11-7 | Home
107
AI Model Win Probability
MUSTANGS
0%
GAUCHOS
100%
MUSTANGS
--
GAUCHOS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
147.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-39.0
CAL POLY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +39.0 points (Cal Poly)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around CP -39.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CP)
CP By 1-7 points
0.1%
CP By 8-14 points
0.6%
UCSB By 1-7 points
0.0%
UCSB By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Cal Poly
93
CAL POLY
UC Santa Barbara
54
UC SANTA BARBARA
Simulated Score
Cal Poly
62
CAL POLY
UC Santa Barbara
75
UC SANTA BARBARA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Mustangs
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Gauchos
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Mustangs (-8.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -39.0
D
Sim
Gauchos (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u159.5
Loss
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Sim
u159.5
Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 14, 2026
UCSB @ CP
79 - 89
Jan 22, 2026
CP @ UCSB
67 - 107
Feb 27, 2025
CP @ UCSB
77 - 96
Jan 11, 2025
UCSB @ CP
75 - 72
Feb 29, 2024
CP @ UCSB
75 - 83
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+20.4% more
Cal Poly: 15.7
vs
UC Santa Barbara: 12.5
Steals (L5)
+13.8% more
Cal Poly: 6.7
vs
UC Santa Barbara: 5.8
Rebounding (L5)
+13.5% more
Cal Poly: 36.6
vs
UC Santa Barbara: 31.6
Assists (L5)
+31.3% more
UC Santa Barbara: 13.1
vs
Cal Poly: 10.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CP Score
93.0
67
UCSB Score
54.0
107
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.7 / 29.2
52.0 / 27.0
Assists
13.1 / 10.0
23.0 / 12.0
Blocks
2.4 / 2.3
1.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
50.0 / 39.6
67.0 / 47.0
Free Throw %
78.0 / 74.1
73.0 / 70.0
Rebounding
31.6 / 36.6
34.0 / 17.0
Steals
5.8 / 6.7
10.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
12.5 / 15.7
9.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CP
14-19-0
(42.4%)
Margin: -2.9
ATS +/-: +1.3
UCSB
Advantage
18-14-0
(56.3%)
Margin: 4.8
ATS +/-: -1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CP
Advantage
16-14-1
(53.3%)
Margin: -2.9
ATS +/-: +1.3
UCSB
13-17-0
(43.3%)
Margin: 4.8
ATS +/-: -1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
CP
17-14-0
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2%
Total +/-: +0.8
UCSB
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7%
Total +/-: +3.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UCSB
CP
UCSB
CP
ML
59%
19-13
58%
19-14
72%
23-9
58%
19-14
ATS
62%
20-12
64%
21-12
72%
23-9
58%
19-14
TTL
47%
15-17
61%
20-13
100%
32-0
100%
33-0
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