Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Sycamores @ Braves INST @ BRAD

INDIANA STATE

SYCAMORESINST

9-10  |  Road

68
FINAL
Wed, Jan 21 • 7:00 PM ET
Carver Arena
View Odds Details →

BRADLEY

BRAVESBRAD

13-7  |  Home

75
AI Model Win Probability
SYCAMORES
0%
📊
BRAVES
100%
SYCAMORES --
BRAVES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
162.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
INDIANA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Indiana State)
SycamoresINST (-3.5) 0 BravesBRAD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Sycamores Cover

91.9%

Braves Cover

8.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around INST -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (INST)

INST By 1-7 points

16.9%

INST By 8-14 points

26.2%

BRAD By 1-7 points

5.8%

BRAD By 8-14 points

1.4%

AI Model Projected Score
88
INDIANA STATE
74
BRADLEY
Simulated Score
70
INDIANA STATE
72
BRADLEY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Sycamores Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Braves Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Sycamores (-8.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim Braves (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o155.5 Loss
Proj Total: 162.0
D
Sim u155.5 Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 21, 2026 INST @ BRAD 68 - 75
Dec 18, 2025 BRAD @ INST 108 - 99
Jan 15, 2025 INST @ BRAD 65 - 118
Jan 1, 2025 BRAD @ INST 90 - 89
Jan 27, 2024 BRAD @ INST 86 - 95
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +30.5% more
Indiana State: 16.8 vs Bradley: 11.7
Turnovers (L5) +20.1% more
Indiana State: 10.8 vs Bradley: 8.6
Steals (L5) +14.1% more
Indiana State: 6.5 vs Bradley: 5.6
Field Goal % (L5) +6.1%
Indiana State: 48.2% vs Bradley: 42.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
INST Score 88.0 68
BRAD Score 74.0 75
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.8 / 36.7 23.0 / 32.0
Assists 11.7 / 16.8 9.0 / 16.0
Blocks 2.8 / 2.7 1.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 42.1 / 48.2 35.0 / 52.0
Free Throw % 72.9 / 66.5 84.0 / 70.0
Rebounding 35.3 / 33.8 36.0 / 34.0
Steals 5.6 / 6.5 14.0 / 1.0
Turnovers 8.6 / 10.8 3.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
6%MONEY94%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
18%MONEY82%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
76%MONEY24%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
INST
11-21-0 (34.4%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: +0.5
BRAD Advantage
21-13-0 (61.8%)
Margin: 3.6 ATS +/-: -0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
INST Advantage
17-12-1 (58.6%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: +0.5
BRAD
13-20-0 (39.4%)
Margin: 3.6 ATS +/-: -0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
INST
13-17-0
O: 43.3% / U: 56.7% Total +/-: -3.9
BRAD
20-13-0
O: 60.6% / U: 39.4% Total +/-: +5.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BRAD
INST
BRAD
INST
ML
65% 22-12
66% 21-11
68% 23-11
53% 17-15
ATS
59% 20-14
62% 20-12
68% 23-11
53% 17-15
TTL
68% 23-11
53% 17-15
100% 34-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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