LIBERTY
FLAMESLIB
15-3 | Road
76
WESTERN KENTUCKY
HILLTOPPERSWKU
11-7 | Home
69
AI Model Win Probability
FLAMES
0%
HILLTOPPERS
100%
FLAMES
--
HILLTOPPERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
154.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-60.0
LIBERTY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +60.0 points (Liberty)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around LIB -60.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LIB)
LIB By 1-7 points
0.0%
LIB By 8-14 points
0.0%
WKU By 1-7 points
0.0%
WKU By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Liberty
107
LIBERTY
Western Kentucky
47
WESTERN KENTUCKY
Simulated Score
Liberty
72
LIBERTY
Western Kentucky
78
WESTERN KENTUCKY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Flames
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Hilltoppers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Flames (+1.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -60.0
D
Sim
Hilltoppers (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o148.5
Loss
Proj Total: 154.0
D
Sim
u148.5
Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 21, 2026
WKU @ LIB
94 - 73
Jan 21, 2026
LIB @ WKU
76 - 69
Mar 8, 2025
LIB @ WKU
90 - 61
Jan 2, 2025
WKU @ LIB
71 - 70
Mar 9, 2024
WKU @ LIB
79 - 82
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+41.6% more
Liberty: 3.9
vs
Western Kentucky: 2.3
Assists (L5)
+26.2% more
Liberty: 15.7
vs
Western Kentucky: 11.6
Field Goal % (L5)
+16.9%
Liberty: 54.3%
vs
Western Kentucky: 37.3%
Free Throw % (L5)
+7.0%
Liberty: 78.1%
vs
Western Kentucky: 71.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
LIB Score
107.0
76
WKU Score
47.0
69
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.8 / 38.2
42.0 / 59.0
Assists
11.6 / 15.7
13.0 / 15.0
Blocks
2.3 / 3.9
4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
37.3 / 54.3
42.0 / 47.0
Free Throw %
71.2 / 78.1
65.0 / 71.0
Rebounding
40.0 / 27.4
34.0 / 28.0
Steals
7.0 / 5.9
5.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
8.6 / 7.6
13.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LIB
Advantage
26-8-0
(76.5%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: -1.9
WKU
18-14-0
(56.3%)
Margin: 3.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LIB
13-18-0
(41.9%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: -1.9
WKU
Advantage
15-15-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 3.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
LIB
18-13-0
O: 58.1% / U: 41.9%
Total +/-: +4.2
WKU
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +1.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WKU
LIB
WKU
LIB
ML
56%
18-14
50%
17-17
66%
21-11
53%
18-16
ATS
53%
17-15
62%
21-13
66%
21-11
53%
18-16
TTL
56%
18-14
41%
14-20
100%
32-0
100%
34-0
Contextual Game News
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