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UCF

KNIGHTSUCF

14-3  |  Road

57
FINAL
Tue, Jan 20 • 7:00 PM ET
Hilton Coliseum
View Odds Details →

IOWA STATE

CYCLONESISU

16-2  |  Home

87
AI Model Win Probability
KNIGHTS
100%
📊
CYCLONES
0%
KNIGHTS --
CYCLONES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
166.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
IOWA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Iowa State)
KnightsUCF (-3.5) 0 CyclonesISU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Knights Cover

27.4%

Cyclones Cover

72.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ISU -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ISU)

UCF By 1-7 points

16.9%

UCF By 8-14 points

6.8%

ISU By 1-7 points

26.8%

ISU By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
80
UCF
86
IOWA STATE
Simulated Score
68
UCF
72
IOWA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cyclones Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cyclones Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cyclones (+14.5) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim Cyclones (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o156.5 Loss
Proj Total: 166.0
D
Sim u156.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 20, 2026 UCF @ ISU 57 - 87
Feb 11, 2025 ISU @ UCF 77 - 65
Jan 21, 2025 UCF @ ISU 83 - 108
Mar 2, 2024 ISU @ UCF 60 - 52
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +31.8% more
Iowa State: 2.9 vs UCF: 2.2
Steals (L5) +9.1% more
Iowa State: 6.6 vs UCF: 6.0
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +1.8%
Iowa State: 37.8% vs UCF: 36.0%
Free Throw % (L5) +12.8%
UCF: 76.4% vs Iowa State: 63.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UCF Score 80.0 57
ISU Score 86.0 87
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.8 / 36.0 36.0 / 31.0
Assists 14.1 / 15.5 22.0 / 13.0
Blocks 2.9 / 2.2 3.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 43.8 / 46.6 51.0 / 37.0
Free Throw % 63.6 / 76.4 57.0 / 83.0
Rebounding 35.9 / 35.8 38.0 / 32.0
Steals 6.6 / 6.0 13.0 / 1.0
Turnovers 11.5 / 11.6 5.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
43%MONEY57%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
28%MONEY72%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
46%MONEY54%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UCF
21-12-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 2.3 ATS +/-: +1.2
ISU Advantage
29-8-0 (78.4%)
Margin: 16.4 ATS +/-: +2.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UCF
16-17-0 (48.5%)
Margin: 2.3 ATS +/-: +1.2
ISU Advantage
22-14-1 (61.1%)
Margin: 16.4 ATS +/-: +2.3
⚖️ Over/Under
UCF
13-20-0
O: 39.4% / U: 60.6% Total +/-: +1.2
ISU
16-21-0
O: 43.2% / U: 56.8% Total +/-: -1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ISU
UCF
ISU
UCF
ML
57% 21-16
55% 18-15
76% 26-8
65% 20-11
ATS
62% 23-14
55% 18-15
76% 26-8
65% 20-11
TTL
54% 20-17
61% 20-13
100% 34-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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