GEORGIA
BULLDOGSUGA
15-3 | Road
74
MISSOURI
TIGERSMIZ
13-5 | Home
72
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
100%
TIGERS
0%
BULLDOGS
--
TIGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
156.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-28.0
MISSOURI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +28.0 points (Missouri)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIZ -28.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIZ)
UGA By 1-7 points
0.2%
UGA By 8-14 points
0.0%
MIZ By 1-7 points
1.7%
MIZ By 8-14 points
6.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Georgia
64
GEORGIA
Missouri
92
MISSOURI
Simulated Score
Georgia
72
GEORGIA
Missouri
75
MISSOURI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Tigers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Tigers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Tigers (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -28.0
D
Sim
Tigers (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u164.5
Win
Proj Total: 156.0
D
Sim
u164.5
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 20, 2026
UGA @ MIZ
74 - 72
Feb 15, 2025
MIZ @ UGA
87 - 74
Mar 13, 2024
MIZ @ UGA
59 - 64
Jan 6, 2024
UGA @ MIZ
75 - 68
Feb 25, 2023
MIZ @ UGA
85 - 63
Key Model Drivers
Field Goal % (L5)
+4.1%
Missouri: 48.1%
vs
Georgia: 44.0%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.0%
Missouri: 36.0%
vs
Georgia: 34.0%
Blocks (L5)
+42.4% more
Georgia: 7.3
vs
Missouri: 4.2
Steals (L5)
+33.7% more
Georgia: 8.2
vs
Missouri: 5.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UGA Score
64.0
74
MIZ Score
92.0
72
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.0 / 34.0
28.0 / 28.0
Assists
13.9 / 14.1
14.0 / 8.0
Blocks
4.2 / 7.3
3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
48.1 / 44.0
40.0 / 37.0
Free Throw %
69.0 / 78.3
92.0 / 86.0
Rebounding
31.7 / 38.2
39.0 / 44.0
Steals
5.4 / 8.2
8.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
12.2 / 12.1
12.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UGA
Advantage
22-11-0
(66.7%)
Margin: 9.6
ATS +/-: +0.3
MIZ
20-13-0
(60.6%)
Margin: 3.8
ATS +/-: -2.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UGA
Advantage
15-17-1
(46.9%)
Margin: 9.6
ATS +/-: +0.3
MIZ
14-19-0
(42.4%)
Margin: 3.8
ATS +/-: -2.3
⚖️ Over/Under
UGA
18-15-0
O: 54.6% / U: 45.5%
Total +/-: +4.9
MIZ
16-16-1
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIZ
UGA
MIZ
UGA
ML
61%
20-13
67%
22-11
69%
22-10
56%
18-14
ATS
70%
23-10
61%
20-13
69%
22-10
56%
18-14
TTL
79%
26-7
64%
21-12
100%
32-0
100%
32-0
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