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MIAMI

HEATMIA

22-20  |  Road

112
FINAL
Mon, Jan 19 • 10:00 PM ET
Chase Center
View Odds Details →

GOLDEN STATE

WARRIORSGS

24-19  |  Home

135
AI Model Win Probability
HEAT
100%
📊
WARRIORS
0%
HEAT --
WARRIORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
221.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
GOLDEN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Golden State)
HeatMIA (-3.5) 0 WarriorsGS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Heat Cover

30.9%

Warriors Cover

69.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around GS -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GS)

MIA By 1-7 points

18.6%

MIA By 8-14 points

8.0%

GS By 1-7 points

27.2%

GS By 8-14 points

23.0%

AI Model Projected Score
108
MIAMI
113
GOLDEN STATE
Simulated Score
112
MIAMI
118
GOLDEN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Warriors Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Warriors Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Warriors (+5) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim Warriors (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u239.0 Loss
Proj Total: 221.0
D
Sim u239.0 Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 19, 2026 MIA @ GS 112 - 135
Nov 19, 2025 GS @ MIA 96 - 110
Mar 25, 2025 GS @ MIA 86 - 112
Jan 7, 2025 MIA @ GS 114 - 98
Mar 26, 2024 GS @ MIA 113 - 92
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +66.1% more
Golden State: 5.6 vs Miami: 3.4
Turnovers (L5) +14.4% more
Golden State: 12.6 vs Miami: 11.1
Steals (L5) +11.8% more
Golden State: 8.7 vs Miami: 7.7
Assists (L5) +11.7% more
Golden State: 31.4 vs Miami: 28.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIA Score 108.0 112
GS Score 113.0 135
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 40.1 / 37.3 47.0 / 29.0
Assists 31.4 / 28.1 38.0 / 30.0
Blocks 5.6 / 3.4 3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 51.6 / 43.7 52.0 / 39.0
Free Throw % 84.1 / 74.2 76.0 / 88.0
Rebounding 40.1 / 45.0 46.0 / 54.0
Steals 8.7 / 7.7 11.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 12.6 / 11.1 14.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
38%MONEY62%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
35%MONEY65%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
71%MONEY29%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA Advantage
43-40-0 (51.8%)
Margin: 2.3 ATS +/-: +1.3
GS
38-46-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA Advantage
47-36-0 (56.6%)
Margin: 2.3 ATS +/-: +1.3
GS
36-48-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4% Total +/-: +3.0
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7% Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GS
MIA
GS
MIA
ML
55% 95-79
48% 46-50
58% 49-35
59% 48-34
ATS
58% 101-73
51% 49-47
58% 49-35
59% 48-34
TTL
77% 134-40
59% 57-39
100% 84-0
100% 82-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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