Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / 49ers @ Pirates CLT @ ECU

CHARLOTTE

49ERSCLT

9-9  |  Road

73
FINAL
Sun, Jan 18 • 2:00 PM ET
Minges Coliseum
View Odds Details →

EAST CAROLINA

PIRATESECU

5-12  |  Home

70
AI Model Win Probability
49ERS
0%
📊
PIRATES
100%
49ERS --
PIRATES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
116.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-24.0
CHARLOTTE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +24.0 points (Charlotte)
49ersCLT (-3.5) 0 PiratesECU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

49ers Cover

99.2%

Pirates Cover

0.8%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around CLT -24.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLT)

CLT By 1-7 points

4.0%

CLT By 8-14 points

12.2%

ECU By 1-7 points

0.6%

ECU By 8-14 points

0.1%

AI Model Projected Score
70
CHARLOTTE
46
EAST CAROLINA
Simulated Score
68
CHARLOTTE
71
EAST CAROLINA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI 49ers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Pirates Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI 49ers (-1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -24.0
D
Sim Pirates (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u139.5 Loss
Proj Total: 116.0
D
Sim u139.5 Win
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 21, 2026 ECU @ CLT 56 - 68
Jan 18, 2026 CLT @ ECU 73 - 70
Mar 2, 2025 CLT @ ECU 76 - 78
Feb 15, 2025 ECU @ CLT 75 - 59
Mar 9, 2024 CLT @ ECU 82 - 72
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +13.0%
Charlotte: 76.0% vs East Carolina: 63.1%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +6.2%
Charlotte: 35.5% vs East Carolina: 29.3%
Field Goal % (L5) +4.9%
Charlotte: 47.3% vs East Carolina: 42.4%
Blocks (L5) +48.4% more
East Carolina: 6.0 vs Charlotte: 4.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CLT Score 70.0 73
ECU Score 46.0 70
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.3 / 35.5 38.0 / 48.0
Assists 11.9 / 12.0 13.0 / 14.0
Blocks 6.0 / 4.0 5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 42.4 / 47.3 43.0 / 54.0
Free Throw % 63.1 / 76.0 67.0 / 85.0
Rebounding 39.4 / 31.6 23.0 / 37.0
Steals 5.2 / 5.5 8.0 / 1.0
Turnovers 12.8 / 10.4 5.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
63%MONEY37%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
64%MONEY36%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
49%MONEY51%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLT Advantage
17-17-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -1.1 ATS +/-: +0.8
ECU
11-20-0 (35.5%)
Margin: -5.9 ATS +/-: -2.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLT Advantage
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: -1.1 ATS +/-: +0.8
ECU
12-18-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -5.9 ATS +/-: -2.5
⚖️ Over/Under
CLT
19-13-1
O: 59.4% / U: 40.6% Total +/-: +3.7
ECU
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: +3.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ECU
CLT
ECU
CLT
ML
55% 17-14
62% 21-13
55% 17-14
67% 22-11
ATS
52% 16-15
68% 23-11
55% 17-14
67% 22-11
TTL
61% 19-12
65% 22-12
100% 31-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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