ARIZONA STATE
SUN DEVILSASU
10-7 | Road
73
HOUSTON
COUGARSHOU
16-1 | Home
103
AI Model Win Probability
SUN DEVILS
100%
COUGARS
0%
SUN DEVILS
--
COUGARS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
161.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-25.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +25.0 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around HOU -25.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
ASU By 1-7 points
0.5%
ASU By 8-14 points
0.1%
HOU By 1-7 points
3.3%
HOU By 8-14 points
10.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Arizona State
68
ARIZONA STATE
Houston
93
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
Arizona State
60
ARIZONA STATE
Houston
72
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cougars
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cougars
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cougars (-18.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -25.0
D
Sim
Cougars (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o142.5
Win
Proj Total: 161.0
D
Sim
u142.5
Win
Proj Total: 132.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 18, 2026
ASU @ HOU
73 - 103
Feb 18, 2025
HOU @ ASU
80 - 65
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+27.2% more
Houston: 7.9
vs
Arizona State: 6.2
Rebounding (L5)
+8.5% more
Houston: 38.1
vs
Arizona State: 35.2
Blocks (L5)
+49.8% more
Arizona State: 6.5
vs
Houston: 3.2
Turnovers (L5)
+45.1% more
Arizona State: 12.2
vs
Houston: 6.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ASU Score
68.0
73
HOU Score
93.0
103
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
30.6 / 29.8
48.0 / 36.0
Assists
14.3 / 15.4
22.0 / 16.0
Blocks
3.2 / 6.5
8.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
42.0 / 45.8
56.0 / 41.0
Free Throw %
73.7 / 72.8
92.0 / 83.0
Rebounding
38.1 / 35.2
33.0 / 30.0
Steals
7.9 / 6.2
12.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
6.7 / 12.2
10.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ASU
17-16-0
(51.5%)
Margin: -2.0
ATS +/-: +0.9
HOU
Advantage
30-7-0
(81.1%)
Margin: 14.5
ATS +/-: +0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ASU
Advantage
20-12-1
(62.5%)
Margin: -2.0
ATS +/-: +0.9
HOU
18-19-0
(48.7%)
Margin: 14.5
ATS +/-: +0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
ASU
16-17-0
O: 48.5% / U: 51.5%
Total +/-: +0.2
HOU
15-22-0
O: 40.5% / U: 59.5%
Total +/-: -0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
ASU
HOU
ASU
ML
70%
26-11
52%
17-16
68%
23-11
68%
21-10
ATS
70%
26-11
52%
17-16
68%
23-11
68%
21-10
TTL
59%
22-15
64%
21-12
100%
34-0
100%
31-0
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