Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Mountaineers @ Golden Griffins MSM @ CAN

MOUNT ST. MARY'S

MOUNTAINEERSMSM

6-12  |  Road

78
FINAL
Sat, Jan 17 • 12:00 PM ET
Koessler Athletic Center
View Odds Details →

CANISIUS

GOLDEN GRIFFINSCAN

8-10  |  Home

68
AI Model Win Probability
MOUNTAINEERS
0%
📊
GOLDEN GRIFFINS
100%
MOUNTAINEERS --
GOLDEN GRIFFINS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
179.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
MOUNT ST. MARY'S
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Mount St. Mary's)
MountaineersMSM (-3.5) 0 Golden GriffinsCAN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mountaineers Cover

90.3%

Golden Griffins Cover

9.7%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MSM -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MSM)

MSM By 1-7 points

18.6%

MSM By 8-14 points

26.8%

CAN By 1-7 points

6.8%

CAN By 8-14 points

1.7%

AI Model Projected Score
96
MOUNT ST. MARY'S
83
CANISIUS
Simulated Score
67
MOUNT ST. MARY'S
75
CANISIUS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mountaineers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Golden Griffins Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mountaineers (+3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim Golden Griffins (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o134.5 Win
Proj Total: 179.0
D
Sim u134.5 Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 22, 2026 CAN @ MSM 47 - 68
Jan 17, 2026 MSM @ CAN 78 - 68
Feb 16, 2025 MSM @ CAN 73 - 66
Mar 12, 2024 CAN @ MSM 77 - 61
Mar 1, 2024 MSM @ CAN 56 - 61
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +32.9% more
Mount St. Mary's: 15.0 vs Canisius: 10.1
Blocks (L5) +31.0% more
Mount St. Mary's: 3.8 vs Canisius: 2.7
Free Throw % (L5) +3.9%
Canisius: 75.7% vs Mount St. Mary's: 71.8%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.3%
Canisius: 29.4% vs Mount St. Mary's: 26.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MSM Score 96.0 78
CAN Score 83.0 68
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.4 / 26.1 38.0 / 42.0
Assists 10.9 / 10.4 13.0 / 13.0
Blocks 2.7 / 3.8 3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 36.6 / 36.6 40.0 / 56.0
Free Throw % 75.7 / 71.8 100.0 / 71.0
Rebounding 35.4 / 37.8 26.0 / 38.0
Steals 6.7 / 6.5 6.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 10.1 / 15.0 10.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
69%MONEY31%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
77%MONEY23%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
75%MONEY25%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MSM Advantage
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -2.1 ATS +/-: 0.0
CAN
10-21-0 (32.3%)
Margin: -7.5 ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MSM Advantage
17-13-1 (56.7%)
Margin: -2.1 ATS +/-: 0.0
CAN
13-16-0 (44.8%)
Margin: -7.5 ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
MSM
10-21-0
O: 32.3% / U: 67.7% Total +/-: -3.9
CAN
8-21-0
O: 27.6% / U: 72.4% Total +/-: -3.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CAN
MSM
CAN
MSM
ML
55% 17-14
53% 17-15
68% 21-10
61% 19-12
ATS
65% 20-11
62% 20-12
68% 21-10
61% 19-12
TTL
58% 18-13
81% 26-6
100% 31-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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