Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Tigers @ Beavers PAC @ ORST

PACIFIC

TIGERSPAC

12-8  |  Road

81
FINAL
Sat, Jan 17 • 6:00 PM ET
Gill Coliseum
View Odds Details →

OREGON STATE

BEAVERSORST

10-10  |  Home

64
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
100%
📊
BEAVERS
0%
TIGERS --
BEAVERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
179.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
OREGON STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Oregon State)
TigersPAC (-3.5) 0 BeaversORST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

46.0%

Beavers Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ORST -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ORST)

PAC By 1-7 points

24.3%

PAC By 8-14 points

13.7%

ORST By 1-7 points

26.2%

ORST By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
89
PACIFIC
90
OREGON STATE
Simulated Score
68
PACIFIC
75
OREGON STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Beavers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Beavers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Beavers (+1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Beavers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o139.5 Win
Proj Total: 179.0
D
Sim u139.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 17, 2026 PAC @ ORST 81 - 64
Jan 2, 2026 ORST @ PAC 53 - 84
Feb 15, 2025 PAC @ ORST 65 - 79
Jan 11, 2025 ORST @ PAC 91 - 55
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +46.7% more
Oregon State: 3.1 vs Pacific: 2.1
Steals (L5) +11.1% more
Oregon State: 7.1 vs Pacific: 6.4
Free Throw % (L5) +2.6%
Oregon State: 81.5% vs Pacific: 78.9%
Turnovers (L5) +32.3% more
Pacific: 15.4 vs Oregon State: 10.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PAC Score 89.0 81
ORST Score 90.0 64
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.3 / 40.7 25.0 / 43.0
Assists 12.5 / 16.7 7.0 / 14.0
Blocks 3.1 / 2.1 3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 39.8 / 45.7 42.0 / 54.0
Free Throw % 81.5 / 78.9 81.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 32.0 / 39.2 25.0 / 31.0
Steals 7.1 / 6.4 2.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 10.5 / 15.4 9.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
22%TICKETS78%
21%MONEY79%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
48%MONEY52%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
76%MONEY24%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PAC Advantage
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 3.9 ATS +/-: +2.0
ORST
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PAC Advantage
16-14-1 (53.3%)
Margin: 3.9 ATS +/-: +2.0
ORST
16-17-0 (48.5%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
PAC
10-19-2
O: 34.5% / U: 65.5% Total +/-: -2.0
ORST
19-14-0
O: 57.6% / U: 42.4% Total +/-: +1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ORST
PAC
ORST
PAC
ML
45% 15-18
45% 15-18
59% 19-13
80% 24-6
ATS
48% 16-17
55% 18-15
59% 19-13
80% 24-6
TTL
55% 18-15
58% 19-14
100% 32-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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