Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Tar Heels @ Golden Bears UNC @ CAL

NORTH CAROLINA

TAR HEELSUNC

14-3  |  Road

78
FINAL
Sat, Jan 17 • 4:00 PM ET
Haas Pavilion
View Odds Details →

CALIFORNIA

GOLDEN BEARSCAL

13-5  |  Home

84
AI Model Win Probability
TAR HEELS
0%
📊
GOLDEN BEARS
100%
TAR HEELS --
GOLDEN BEARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
153.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
NORTH CAROLINA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (North Carolina)
Tar HeelsUNC (-3.5) 0 Golden BearsCAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tar Heels Cover

75.8%

Golden Bears Cover

24.2%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UNC -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNC)

UNC By 1-7 points

26.2%

UNC By 8-14 points

25.3%

CAL By 1-7 points

15.3%

CAL By 8-14 points

5.8%

AI Model Projected Score
80
NORTH CAROLINA
73
CALIFORNIA
Simulated Score
65
NORTH CAROLINA
78
CALIFORNIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Tar Heels Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Golden Bears Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Tar Heels (+6.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim Golden Bears (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o150.5 Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Sim u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 17, 2026 UNC @ CAL 78 - 84
Jan 15, 2025 CAL @ UNC 53 - 79
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +23.2% more
North Carolina: 15.4 vs California: 11.8
Rebounding (L5) +14.8% more
North Carolina: 36.1 vs California: 30.8
Field Goal % (L5) +12.3%
North Carolina: 52.3% vs California: 40.0%
Turnovers (L5) +9.8% more
North Carolina: 10.9 vs California: 9.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNC Score 80.0 78
CAL Score 73.0 84
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 26.8 / 36.6 54.0 / 33.0
Assists 11.8 / 15.4 20.0 / 16.0
Blocks 2.2 / 2.4 1.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 40.0 / 52.3 50.0 / 46.0
Free Throw % 81.5 / 65.2 75.0 / 61.0
Rebounding 30.8 / 36.1 34.0 / 34.0
Steals 7.1 / 5.9 6.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 9.8 / 10.9 13.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
98%TICKETS2%
94%MONEY6%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
80%TICKETS20%
62%MONEY38%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
83%MONEY17%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNC Advantage
24-9-0 (72.7%)
Margin: 8.1 ATS +/-: +0.5
CAL
22-12-0 (64.7%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNC Advantage
19-14-0 (57.6%)
Margin: 8.1 ATS +/-: +0.5
CAL
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
UNC
14-19-0
O: 42.4% / U: 57.6% Total +/-: -2.2
CAL
15-18-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CAL
UNC
CAL
UNC
ML
61% 20-13
76% 25-8
77% 24-7
69% 22-10
ATS
64% 21-12
73% 24-9
78% 25-7
69% 22-10
TTL
70% 23-10
55% 18-15
100% 32-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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