MOREHEAD STATE
EAGLESMORE
8-9 | Road
100
TENNESSEE STATE
TIGERSTNST
10-6 | Home
105
AI Model Win Probability
EAGLES
0%
TIGERS
100%
EAGLES
--
TIGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
114.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+6.0
TENNESSEE STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around TNST +6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TNST)
MORE By 1-7 points
26.8%
MORE By 8-14 points
24.3%
TNST By 1-7 points
16.9%
TNST By 8-14 points
6.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Morehead State
60
MOREHEAD STATE
Tennessee State
54
TENNESSEE STATE
Simulated Score
Morehead State
73
MOREHEAD STATE
Tennessee State
67
TENNESSEE STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Eagles
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Eagles
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Tigers (+7.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +6.0
D
Sim
Eagles (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u148.5
Loss
Proj Total: 114.0
D
Sim
u148.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 7, 2026
MORE @ TNST
67 - 93
Feb 14, 2026
TNST @ MORE
86 - 94
Jan 15, 2026
MORE @ TNST
100 - 105
Feb 27, 2025
MORE @ TNST
55 - 64
Dec 21, 2024
TNST @ MORE
68 - 74
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+9.8% more
Morehead State: 12.8
vs
Tennessee State: 11.6
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.4%
Morehead State: 48.8%
vs
Tennessee State: 46.4%
Blocks (L5)
+95.0% more
Tennessee State: 4.3
vs
Morehead State: 2.2
Steals (L5)
+56.4% more
Tennessee State: 8.6
vs
Morehead State: 5.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MORE Score
60.0
100
TNST Score
54.0
105
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.4 / 32.5
61.0 / 41.0
Assists
13.5 / 13.1
27.0 / 22.0
Blocks
4.3 / 2.2
9.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
46.4 / 48.8
59.0 / 46.0
Free Throw %
72.8 / 70.9
69.0 / 85.0
Rebounding
36.0 / 32.6
35.0 / 36.0
Steals
8.6 / 5.5
6.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
11.6 / 12.8
11.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MORE
20-13-0
(60.6%)
Margin: 0.5
ATS +/-: +0.7
TNST
Advantage
23-10-0
(69.7%)
Margin: 5.9
ATS +/-: +3.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MORE
17-13-0
(56.7%)
Margin: 0.5
ATS +/-: +0.7
TNST
Advantage
18-11-1
(62.1%)
Margin: 5.9
ATS +/-: +3.8
⚖️ Over/Under
MORE
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7%
Total +/-: +3.5
TNST
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3%
Total +/-: +2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TNST
MORE
TNST
MORE
ML
52%
16-15
62%
20-12
63%
17-10
68%
21-10
ATS
68%
21-10
59%
19-13
64%
18-10
68%
21-10
TTL
52%
16-15
53%
17-15
100%
28-0
100%
31-0
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