Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Purple Eagles @ Golden Griffins NIA @ CAN

NIAGARA

PURPLE EAGLESNIA

4-12  |  Road

59
FINAL
Wed, Jan 14 • 7:00 PM ET
Koessler Athletic Center
View Odds Details →

CANISIUS

GOLDEN GRIFFINSCAN

8-9  |  Home

54
AI Model Win Probability
PURPLE EAGLES
100%
📊
GOLDEN GRIFFINS
0%
PURPLE EAGLES --
GOLDEN GRIFFINS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
172.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
CANISIUS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Canisius)
Purple EaglesNIA (-3.5) 0 Golden GriffinsCAN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Purple Eagles Cover

42.1%

Golden Griffins Cover

57.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CAN -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CAN)

NIA By 1-7 points

23.0%

NIA By 8-14 points

12.2%

CAN By 1-7 points

26.8%

CAN By 8-14 points

18.6%

AI Model Projected Score
85
NIAGARA
87
CANISIUS
Simulated Score
72
NIAGARA
76
CANISIUS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Golden Griffins Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Golden Griffins Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Golden Griffins (+2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim Golden Griffins (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o126.5 Loss
Proj Total: 172.0
D
Sim u126.5 Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 3, 2026 CAN @ NIA 56 - 65
Jan 14, 2026 NIA @ CAN 59 - 54
Feb 12, 2025 CAN @ NIA 60 - 71
Jan 31, 2025 NIA @ CAN 64 - 63
Feb 23, 2024 NIA @ CAN 59 - 69
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +69.5% more
Canisius: 7.1 vs Niagara: 4.2
Rebounding (L5) +24.8% more
Canisius: 33.5 vs Niagara: 26.9
Blocks (L5) +34.6% more
Niagara: 3.8 vs Canisius: 2.5
Assists (L5) +13.8% more
Niagara: 16.1 vs Canisius: 13.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NIA Score 85.0 59
CAN Score 87.0 54
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.6 / 33.3 21.0 / 33.0
Assists 13.9 / 16.1 5.0 / 10.0
Blocks 2.5 / 3.8 3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 38.4 / 44.3 33.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 76.1 / 82.7 75.0 / 78.0
Rebounding 33.5 / 26.9 39.0 / 31.0
Steals 7.1 / 4.2 6.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 9.6 / 9.4 11.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
12%TICKETS88%
5%MONEY95%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
18%TICKETS82%
16%MONEY84%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
25%MONEY75%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NIA
8-22-0 (26.7%)
Margin: -7.4 ATS +/-: -1.1
CAN Advantage
10-21-0 (32.3%)
Margin: -7.5 ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NIA
13-16-0 (44.8%)
Margin: -7.4 ATS +/-: -1.1
CAN
13-16-0 (44.8%)
Margin: -7.5 ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
NIA
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: -0.7
CAN
8-21-0
O: 27.6% / U: 72.4% Total +/-: -3.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CAN
NIA
CAN
NIA
ML
55% 17-14
55% 16-13
68% 21-10
72% 21-8
ATS
65% 20-11
69% 20-9
68% 21-10
72% 21-8
TTL
58% 18-13
55% 16-13
100% 31-0
100% 29-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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