Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Tar Heels @ Cardinal UNC @ STAN

NORTH CAROLINA

TAR HEELSUNC

14-2  |  Road

90
FINAL
Wed, Jan 14 • 9:00 PM ET
Maples Pavilion
View Odds Details →

STANFORD

CARDINALSTAN

13-4  |  Home

95
AI Model Win Probability
TAR HEELS
0%
📊
CARDINAL
100%
TAR HEELS --
CARDINAL --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
145.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
NORTH CAROLINA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (North Carolina)
Tar HeelsUNC (-3.5) 0 CardinalSTAN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tar Heels Cover

93.3%

Cardinal Cover

6.7%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UNC -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNC)

UNC By 1-7 points

15.3%

UNC By 8-14 points

25.3%

STAN By 1-7 points

4.8%

STAN By 8-14 points

1.1%

AI Model Projected Score
80
NORTH CAROLINA
65
STANFORD
Simulated Score
70
NORTH CAROLINA
81
STANFORD
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Tar Heels Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cardinal Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Tar Heels (+3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Sim Cardinal (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u147.5 Loss
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Sim u147.5 Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 14, 2026 UNC @ STAN 90 - 95
Jan 18, 2025 STAN @ UNC 72 - 71
Dec 1, 2020 UNC @ STAN 67 - 63
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +49.8% more
North Carolina: 19.6 vs Stanford: 9.9
Rebounding (L5) +12.8% more
North Carolina: 37.7 vs Stanford: 32.9
Field Goal % (L5) +10.5%
North Carolina: 49.4% vs Stanford: 38.9%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +5.9%
North Carolina: 36.0% vs Stanford: 30.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNC Score 80.0 90
STAN Score 65.0 95
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.0 / 36.0 57.0 / 38.0
Assists 9.9 / 19.6 20.0 / 7.0
Blocks 4.1 / 2.5 0.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 38.9 / 49.4 57.0 / 58.0
Free Throw % 77.0 / 66.3 65.0 / 63.0
Rebounding 32.9 / 37.7 23.0 / 33.0
Steals 7.4 / 6.8 6.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 10.5 / 10.8 8.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
94%TICKETS6%
95%MONEY5%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
85%TICKETS15%
82%MONEY18%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
56%MONEY44%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNC Advantage
24-9-0 (72.7%)
Margin: 8.1 ATS +/-: +0.5
STAN
20-13-0 (60.6%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNC Advantage
19-14-0 (57.6%)
Margin: 8.1 ATS +/-: +0.5
STAN
16-16-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
UNC
14-19-0
O: 42.4% / U: 57.6% Total +/-: -2.2
STAN
15-18-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STAN
UNC
STAN
UNC
ML
48% 16-17
76% 25-8
50% 16-16
69% 22-10
ATS
48% 16-17
73% 24-9
50% 16-16
69% 22-10
TTL
55% 18-15
55% 18-15
100% 32-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Rylan Griffen Secures Spot on Texas A&M's 2026-27 Roster After N…
aggieswire 14 hours, 10 minutes ago
Rutgers Men's Basketball Releases Full 2026-27 Schedule with TV …
yahoo 1 day, 1 hour ago
Tom Moore Retires from UConn GM Role, Eyes Broadcasting Career
yahoo 2 days, 13 hours ago
Duke Dominates ACC Preseason Poll, But Wide-Open Race Looms Behi…
yahoo 3 days, 7 hours ago
Kansas Basketball Secures Melvin Council Jr. for Unprecedented S…
realgm 3 days, 21 hours ago