Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Mountaineers @ Cougars WVU @ HOU

WEST VIRGINIA

MOUNTAINEERSWVU

11-5  |  Road

48
FINAL
Tue, Jan 13 • 8:30 PM ET
Fertitta Center
View Odds Details →

HOUSTON

COUGARSHOU

15-1  |  Home

77
AI Model Win Probability
MOUNTAINEERS
100%
📊
COUGARS
0%
MOUNTAINEERS --
COUGARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
159.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Houston)
MountaineersWVU (-3.5) 0 CougarsHOU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mountaineers Cover

46.0%

Cougars Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around HOU -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

WVU By 1-7 points

24.3%

WVU By 8-14 points

13.7%

HOU By 1-7 points

26.2%

HOU By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
79
WEST VIRGINIA
80
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
65
WEST VIRGINIA
72
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cougars Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cougars Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cougars (+13.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Cougars (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o127.5 Loss
Proj Total: 159.0
D
Sim u127.5 Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 13, 2026 WVU @ HOU 48 - 77
Jan 29, 2025 HOU @ WVU 63 - 49
Jan 15, 2025 WVU @ HOU 54 - 70
Jan 6, 2024 WVU @ HOU 55 - 89
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +48.3% more
Houston: 7.4 vs West Virginia: 5.0
Blocks (L5) +46.7% more
Houston: 3.4 vs West Virginia: 2.3
Free Throw % (L5) +3.1%
Houston: 72.5% vs West Virginia: 69.4%
Turnovers (L5) +42.3% more
West Virginia: 11.3 vs Houston: 6.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WVU Score 79.0 48
HOU Score 80.0 77
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.4 / 41.0 31.0 / 36.0
Assists 13.0 / 12.7 17.0 / 10.0
Blocks 3.4 / 2.3 3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 41.5 / 46.9 43.0 / 37.0
Free Throw % 72.5 / 69.4 76.0 / 50.0
Rebounding 38.2 / 35.7 38.0 / 29.0
Steals 7.4 / 5.0 9.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 6.5 / 11.3 7.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
12%MONEY88%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
16%MONEY84%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
47%MONEY53%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WVU
21-14-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +0.2
HOU Advantage
30-7-0 (81.1%)
Margin: 14.5 ATS +/-: +0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WVU Advantage
18-17-0 (51.4%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +0.2
HOU
18-19-0 (48.7%)
Margin: 14.5 ATS +/-: +0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
WVU
13-21-1
O: 38.2% / U: 61.8% Total +/-: -1.6
HOU
15-22-0
O: 40.5% / U: 59.5% Total +/-: -0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
WVU
HOU
WVU
ML
70% 26-11
63% 22-13
68% 23-11
76% 26-8
ATS
70% 26-11
60% 21-14
68% 23-11
76% 26-8
TTL
59% 22-15
40% 14-21
100% 34-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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