Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Lions @ Knights UNA @ BELL

NORTH ALABAMA

LIONSUNA

5-9  |  Road

82
FINAL
Sat, Jan 10 • 2:00 PM ET
Knights Hall
View Odds Details →

BELLARMINE

KNIGHTSBELL

6-9  |  Home

73
AI Model Win Probability
LIONS
0%
📊
KNIGHTS
100%
LIONS --
KNIGHTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
152.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
NORTH ALABAMA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (North Alabama)
LionsUNA (-3.5) 0 KnightsBELL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lions Cover

88.5%

Knights Cover

11.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UNA -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNA)

UNA By 1-7 points

20.1%

UNA By 8-14 points

27.2%

BELL By 1-7 points

8.0%

BELL By 8-14 points

2.2%

AI Model Projected Score
82
NORTH ALABAMA
70
BELLARMINE
Simulated Score
71
NORTH ALABAMA
78
BELLARMINE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Lions Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Knights Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Lions (-4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim Knights (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o146.5 Win
Proj Total: 152.0
D
Sim u146.5 Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 25, 2026 BELL @ UNA 68 - 73
Jan 10, 2026 UNA @ BELL 82 - 73
Jan 2, 2025 BELL @ UNA 66 - 82
Feb 24, 2024 UNA @ BELL 70 - 82
Jan 11, 2024 BELL @ UNA 53 - 69
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +49.5% more
North Alabama: 4.1 vs Bellarmine: 2.1
Steals (L5) +39.6% more
North Alabama: 7.3 vs Bellarmine: 4.4
Assists (L5) +79.1% more
Bellarmine: 15.1 vs North Alabama: 8.4
Turnovers (L5) +18.7% more
Bellarmine: 11.9 vs North Alabama: 10.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNA Score 82.0 82
BELL Score 70.0 73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.3 / 31.2 39.0 / 52.0
Assists 15.1 / 8.4 19.0 / 15.0
Blocks 2.1 / 4.1 1.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 52.7 / 42.0 52.0 / 54.0
Free Throw % 74.5 / 64.1 62.0 / 77.0
Rebounding 32.8 / 31.3 19.0 / 32.0
Steals 4.4 / 7.3 5.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 11.9 / 10.0 8.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNA
9-21-0 (30.0%)
Margin: -8.2 ATS +/-: -4.3
BELL Advantage
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: -1.7 ATS +/-: +1.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNA
10-17-1 (37.0%)
Margin: -8.2 ATS +/-: -4.3
BELL Advantage
17-12-1 (58.6%)
Margin: -1.7 ATS +/-: +1.7
⚖️ Over/Under
UNA
12-16-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -0.4
BELL
20-10-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +9.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BELL
UNA
BELL
UNA
ML
72% 23-9
43% 13-17
94% 29-2
57% 16-12
ATS
72% 23-9
60% 18-12
94% 29-2
57% 16-12
TTL
50% 16-16
63% 19-11
100% 31-0
100% 28-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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