Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Toreros @ Tigers USD @ PAC

SAN DIEGO

TOREROSUSD

7-10  |  Road

70
FINAL
Sat, Jan 10 • 7:00 PM ET
Alex G. Spanos Center
View Odds Details →

PACIFIC

TIGERSPAC

11-7  |  Home

77
AI Model Win Probability
TOREROS
100%
📊
TIGERS
0%
TOREROS --
TIGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
172.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-20.0
PACIFIC
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +20.0 points (Pacific)
TorerosUSD (-3.5) 0 TigersPAC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Toreros Cover

2.3%

Tigers Cover

97.7%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around PAC -20.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PAC)

USD By 1-7 points

1.7%

USD By 8-14 points

0.3%

PAC By 1-7 points

8.0%

PAC By 8-14 points

18.6%

AI Model Projected Score
76
SAN DIEGO
96
PACIFIC
Simulated Score
68
SAN DIEGO
74
PACIFIC
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Tigers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Tigers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Tigers (-7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -20.0
D
Sim Tigers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o146.5 Win
Proj Total: 172.0
D
Sim u146.5 Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 10, 2026 USD @ PAC 70 - 77
Dec 28, 2025 PAC @ USD 54 - 66
Mar 6, 2025 USD @ PAC 81 - 77
Feb 6, 2025 USD @ PAC 69 - 71
Dec 30, 2024 PAC @ USD 65 - 75
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +68.7% more
Pacific: 2.5 vs San Diego: 1.5
Rebounding (L5) +32.7% more
Pacific: 37.7 vs San Diego: 28.4
Turnovers (L5) +10.8% more
Pacific: 13.5 vs San Diego: 12.2
Free Throw % (L5) +7.8%
Pacific: 78.8% vs San Diego: 70.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USD Score 76.0 70
PAC Score 96.0 77
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 42.0 / 37.3 24.0 / 30.0
Assists 16.3 / 17.0 14.0 / 12.0
Blocks 2.5 / 1.5 3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 47.9 / 46.9 35.0 / 41.0
Free Throw % 78.8 / 70.9 82.0 / 78.0
Rebounding 37.7 / 28.4 50.0 / 32.0
Steals 6.3 / 9.4 10.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 13.5 / 12.2 11.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
12%MONEY88%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
58%MONEY42%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
35%MONEY65%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USD
12-21-0 (36.4%)
Margin: -3.4 ATS +/-: -0.5
PAC Advantage
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 3.9 ATS +/-: +2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USD
16-15-0 (51.6%)
Margin: -3.4 ATS +/-: -0.5
PAC Advantage
16-14-1 (53.3%)
Margin: 3.9 ATS +/-: +2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
USD
12-17-2
O: 41.4% / U: 58.6% Total +/-: +0.5
PAC
10-19-2
O: 34.5% / U: 65.5% Total +/-: -2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PAC
USD
PAC
USD
ML
45% 15-18
58% 19-14
80% 24-6
70% 23-10
ATS
55% 18-15
55% 18-15
80% 24-6
70% 23-10
TTL
58% 19-14
61% 20-13
100% 30-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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