ARKANSAS
RAZORBACKSARK
12-3 | Road
73
AUBURN
TIGERSAUB
9-6 | Home
95
AI Model Win Probability
RAZORBACKS
100%
TIGERS
0%
RAZORBACKS
--
TIGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
164.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.0
AUBURN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.0 points (Auburn)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around AUB -16.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (AUB)
ARK By 1-7 points
4.0%
ARK By 8-14 points
0.8%
AUB By 1-7 points
13.7%
AUB By 8-14 points
24.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Arkansas
74
ARKANSAS
Auburn
90
AUBURN
Simulated Score
Arkansas
75
ARKANSAS
Auburn
78
AUBURN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Tigers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Tigers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Tigers (-2.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Sim
Tigers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u169.5
Win
Proj Total: 164.0
D
Sim
u169.5
Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 14, 2026
AUB @ ARK
75 - 88
Jan 10, 2026
ARK @ AUB
73 - 95
Feb 19, 2025
ARK @ AUB
60 - 67
Jan 6, 2024
AUB @ ARK
83 - 51
Mar 9, 2023
ARK @ AUB
76 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+13.4% more
Auburn: 12.3
vs
Arkansas: 10.9
Rebounding (L5)
+10.2% more
Auburn: 40.2
vs
Arkansas: 36.5
Assists (L5)
+12.1% more
Arkansas: 16.7
vs
Auburn: 14.7
Steals (L5)
+9.3% more
Arkansas: 7.3
vs
Auburn: 6.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ARK Score
74.0
73
AUB Score
90.0
95
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.0 / 41.4
45.0 / 38.0
Assists
14.7 / 16.7
20.0 / 9.0
Blocks
5.1 / 5.0
2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
46.1 / 49.7
57.0 / 43.0
Free Throw %
72.2 / 74.2
71.0 / 71.0
Rebounding
40.2 / 36.5
37.0 / 28.0
Steals
6.6 / 7.3
11.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
12.3 / 10.9
10.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARK
Advantage
28-9-0
(75.7%)
Margin: 9.2
ATS +/-: +1.9
AUB
22-16-0
(57.9%)
Margin: 4.2
ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARK
Advantage
23-14-0
(62.2%)
Margin: 9.2
ATS +/-: +1.9
AUB
15-23-0
(39.5%)
Margin: 4.2
ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
ARK
22-15-0
O: 59.5% / U: 40.5%
Total +/-: +8.0
AUB
22-16-0
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1%
Total +/-: +4.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
AUB
ARK
AUB
ARK
ML
58%
22-16
68%
25-12
75%
24-8
81%
25-6
ATS
74%
28-10
70%
26-11
75%
24-8
81%
25-6
TTL
53%
20-18
57%
21-16
100%
32-0
100%
31-0
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