HOUSTON
COUGARSHOU
14-1 | Road
77
BAYLOR
BEARSBAY
10-4 | Home
55
AI Model Win Probability
COUGARS
100%
BEARS
0%
COUGARS
--
BEARS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
169.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-41.0
BAYLOR
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +41.0 points (Baylor)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BAY -41.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAY)
HOU By 1-7 points
0.0%
HOU By 8-14 points
0.0%
BAY By 1-7 points
0.0%
BAY By 8-14 points
0.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
64
HOUSTON
Baylor
105
BAYLOR
Simulated Score
Houston
72
HOUSTON
Baylor
69
BAYLOR
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Bears
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cougars
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Bears (+2.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -41.0
D
Sim
Cougars (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o142.5
Loss
Proj Total: 169.0
D
Sim
u142.5
Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 4, 2026
BAY @ HOU
64 - 77
Jan 10, 2026
HOU @ BAY
77 - 55
Mar 8, 2025
HOU @ BAY
65 - 61
Feb 10, 2025
BAY @ HOU
65 - 76
Feb 24, 2024
HOU @ BAY
82 - 76
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+179.1% more
Baylor: 7.1
vs
Houston: 2.5
Turnovers (L5)
+65.2% more
Baylor: 12.0
vs
Houston: 7.3
Assists (L5)
+48.4% more
Baylor: 17.1
vs
Houston: 11.5
Rebounding (L5)
+26.7% more
Baylor: 44.1
vs
Houston: 34.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
64.0
77
BAY Score
105.0
55
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
29.7 / 31.6
37.0 / 28.0
Assists
17.1 / 11.5
11.0 / 16.0
Blocks
7.1 / 2.5
4.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
45.6 / 42.8
37.0 / 39.0
Free Throw %
71.2 / 77.8
58.0 / 62.0
Rebounding
44.1 / 34.8
34.0 / 45.0
Steals
7.2 / 7.6
3.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
12.0 / 7.3
16.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
Advantage
30-7-0
(81.1%)
Margin: 14.5
ATS +/-: +0.7
BAY
17-17-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 5.3
ATS +/-: -1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
Advantage
18-19-0
(48.7%)
Margin: 14.5
ATS +/-: +0.7
BAY
15-18-0
(45.5%)
Margin: 5.3
ATS +/-: -1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
15-22-0
O: 40.5% / U: 59.5%
Total +/-: -0.9
BAY
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5%
Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAY
HOU
BAY
HOU
ML
58%
19-14
70%
26-11
53%
17-15
68%
23-11
ATS
58%
19-14
70%
26-11
53%
17-15
68%
23-11
TTL
45%
15-18
59%
22-15
100%
32-0
100%
34-0
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