Home / NBA Projections NBA / Kings @ Warriors SAC @ GS

SACRAMENTO

KINGSSAC

8-29  |  Road

103
FINAL
Fri, Jan 9 • 10:00 PM ET
Chase Center
View Odds Details →

GOLDEN STATE

WARRIORSGS

20-18  |  Home

137
AI Model Win Probability
KINGS
100%
📊
WARRIORS
0%
KINGS --
WARRIORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
221.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
GOLDEN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Golden State)
KingsSAC (-3.5) 0 WarriorsGS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Kings Cover

46.0%

Warriors Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around GS -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GS)

SAC By 1-7 points

24.3%

SAC By 8-14 points

13.7%

GS By 1-7 points

26.2%

GS By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
110
SACRAMENTO
111
GOLDEN STATE
Simulated Score
115
SACRAMENTO
118
GOLDEN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Warriors Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Warriors Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Warriors (+14.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Warriors (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u230.5 Loss
Proj Total: 221.0
D
Sim u230.5 Win
Proj Total: 233.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 10, 2026 GS @ SAC 118 - 124
Apr 7, 2026 SAC @ GS 105 - 110
Jan 9, 2026 SAC @ GS 103 - 137
Nov 5, 2025 GS @ SAC 116 - 121
Mar 13, 2025 SAC @ GS 104 - 130
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +33.9% more
Golden State: 29.3 vs Sacramento: 21.9
Steals (L5) +8.2% more
Golden State: 9.9 vs Sacramento: 9.1
Free Throw % (L5) +5.4%
Golden State: 79.6% vs Sacramento: 74.2%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +5.4%
Golden State: 34.7% vs Sacramento: 29.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SAC Score 110.0 103
GS Score 111.0 137
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.7 / 29.3 42.0 / 26.0
Assists 29.3 / 21.9 39.0 / 23.0
Blocks 3.3 / 5.4 6.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 45.6 / 43.0 55.0 / 50.0
Free Throw % 79.6 / 74.2 100.0 / 77.0
Rebounding 41.7 / 40.6 41.0 / 31.0
Steals 9.9 / 9.1 4.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 12.1 / 13.8 11.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
13%TICKETS87%
27%MONEY73%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
53%MONEY47%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
44%MONEY56%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SAC
22-60-0 (26.8%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
GS Advantage
38-46-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SAC Advantage
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
GS
36-48-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
SAC
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +0.8
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7% Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GS
SAC
GS
SAC
ML
55% 95-79
55% 55-45
58% 49-35
61% 50-32
ATS
58% 101-73
54% 52-45-3
58% 49-35
61% 50-32
TTL
77% 134-40
58% 57-42-1
100% 84-0
100% 82-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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