OHIO STATE
BUCKEYESOSU
10-4 | Road
72
OREGON
DUCKSORE
8-7 | Home
62
AI Model Win Probability
BUCKEYES
100%
DUCKS
0%
BUCKEYES
--
DUCKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
187.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-31.0
OREGON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +31.0 points (Oregon)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ORE -31.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ORE)
OSU By 1-7 points
0.1%
OSU By 8-14 points
0.0%
ORE By 1-7 points
0.8%
ORE By 8-14 points
4.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Ohio State
78
OHIO STATE
Oregon
109
OREGON
Simulated Score
Ohio State
72
OHIO STATE
Oregon
75
OREGON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Ducks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Ducks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Ducks (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -31.0
D
Sim
Ducks (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o152.5
Loss
Proj Total: 187.0
D
Sim
u152.5
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 8, 2026
OSU @ ORE
72 - 62
Jan 9, 2025
ORE @ OSU
73 - 71
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+81.2% more
Oregon: 4.7
vs
Ohio State: 2.6
Turnovers (L5)
+36.0% more
Oregon: 13.6
vs
Ohio State: 10.0
Rebounding (L5)
+25.0% more
Oregon: 40.8
vs
Ohio State: 32.7
Assists (L5)
+14.2% more
Oregon: 17.6
vs
Ohio State: 15.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
OSU Score
78.0
72
ORE Score
109.0
62
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.3 / 33.9
23.0 / 33.0
Assists
17.6 / 15.5
12.0 / 10.0
Blocks
4.7 / 2.6
6.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
46.8 / 49.5
33.0 / 45.0
Free Throw %
70.3 / 75.1
75.0 / 78.0
Rebounding
40.8 / 32.7
32.0 / 41.0
Steals
5.4 / 5.0
6.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
13.6 / 10.0
7.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OSU
Advantage
21-13-0
(61.8%)
Margin: 6.7
ATS +/-: +1.8
ORE
12-20-0
(37.5%)
Margin: -3.1
ATS +/-: -2.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OSU
Advantage
17-16-1
(51.5%)
Margin: 6.7
ATS +/-: +1.8
ORE
12-20-0
(37.5%)
Margin: -3.1
ATS +/-: -2.5
⚖️ Over/Under
OSU
16-18-0
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9%
Total +/-: -1.0
ORE
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3%
Total +/-: -1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ORE
OSU
ORE
OSU
ML
56%
18-14
53%
18-16
62%
18-11
73%
24-9
ATS
56%
18-14
59%
20-14
62%
18-11
73%
24-9
TTL
59%
19-13
56%
19-15
100%
29-0
100%
33-0
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