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UCF

KNIGHTSUCF

12-1  |  Road

76
FINAL
Tue, Jan 6 • 8:00 PM ET
Gallagher-Iba Arena
View Odds Details →

OKLAHOMA STATE

COWBOYSOKST

12-2  |  Home

87
AI Model Win Probability
KNIGHTS
0%
📊
COWBOYS
100%
KNIGHTS --
COWBOYS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
201.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
UCF
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (UCF)
KnightsUCF (-3.5) 0 CowboysOKST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Knights Cover

75.8%

Cowboys Cover

24.2%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UCF -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UCF)

UCF By 1-7 points

26.2%

UCF By 8-14 points

25.3%

OKST By 1-7 points

15.3%

OKST By 8-14 points

5.8%

AI Model Projected Score
104
UCF
97
OKLAHOMA STATE
Simulated Score
70
UCF
75
OKLAHOMA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Knights Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cowboys Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Knights (-2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim Cowboys (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o174.5 Loss
Proj Total: 201.0
D
Sim u174.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 3, 2026 OKST @ UCF 111 - 104
Jan 6, 2026 UCF @ OKST 76 - 87
Mar 5, 2025 OKST @ UCF 70 - 83
Feb 19, 2025 UCF @ OKST 95 - 104
Mar 12, 2024 OKST @ UCF 62 - 77
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +8.0% more
UCF: 40.8 vs Oklahoma State: 37.5
Turnovers (L5) +14.5% more
Oklahoma State: 10.7 vs UCF: 9.3
Steals (L5) +9.2% more
Oklahoma State: 7.3 vs UCF: 6.6
Free Throw % (L5) +4.8%
Oklahoma State: 74.9% vs UCF: 70.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UCF Score 104.0 76
OKST Score 97.0 87
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.0 / 34.4 53.0 / 21.0
Assists 13.5 / 13.6 13.0 / 15.0
Blocks 2.4 / 2.5 3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 47.5 / 47.5 47.0 / 38.0
Free Throw % 74.9 / 70.1 77.0 / 65.0
Rebounding 37.5 / 40.8 39.0 / 36.0
Steals 7.3 / 6.6 5.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 10.7 / 9.3 16.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
41%MONEY59%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
36%MONEY64%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UCF Advantage
21-12-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 2.3 ATS +/-: +1.2
OKST
20-15-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: -0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UCF Advantage
16-17-0 (48.5%)
Margin: 2.3 ATS +/-: +1.2
OKST
16-19-0 (45.7%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: -0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
UCF
13-20-0
O: 39.4% / U: 60.6% Total +/-: +1.2
OKST
20-15-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +2.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKST
UCF
OKST
UCF
ML
60% 21-14
55% 18-15
66% 21-11
65% 20-11
ATS
57% 20-15
55% 18-15
66% 21-11
65% 20-11
TTL
57% 20-15
61% 20-13
100% 32-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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