UTAH
JAZZUTAH
12-21 | Road
114
GOLDEN STATE
WARRIORSGS
18-17 | Home
123
AI Model Win Probability
JAZZ
0%
WARRIORS
100%
JAZZ
--
WARRIORS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
227.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+3.0
GOLDEN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around GS +3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GS)
UTAH By 1-7 points
27.2%
UTAH By 8-14 points
20.1%
GS By 1-7 points
21.6%
GS By 8-14 points
10.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Utah
115
UTAH
Golden State
112
GOLDEN STATE
Simulated Score
Utah
108
UTAH
Golden State
112
GOLDEN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Jazz
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Warriors
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Warriors (+11)
Win
Proj Spread: +3.0
D
Sim
Warriors (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u246.5
Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Sim
u246.5
Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 9, 2026
GS @ UTAH
116 - 119
Jan 28, 2026
GS @ UTAH
140 - 124
Jan 3, 2026
UTAH @ GS
114 - 123
Nov 24, 2025
UTAH @ GS
117 - 134
Feb 5, 2025
GS @ UTAH
128 - 131
Key Model Drivers
Field Goal % (L5)
+1.9%
Utah: 47.5%
vs
Golden State: 45.6%
Steals (L5)
+19.8% more
Golden State: 8.5
vs
Utah: 7.1
Blocks (L5)
+19.8% more
Golden State: 4.9
vs
Utah: 4.1
Turnovers (L5)
+8.2% more
Golden State: 16.9
vs
Utah: 15.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UTAH Score
115.0
114
GS Score
112.0
123
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.3 / 34.5
42.0 / 37.0
Assists
27.9 / 28.1
32.0 / 32.0
Blocks
4.9 / 4.1
2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
45.6 / 47.5
49.0 / 52.0
Free Throw %
82.7 / 81.4
75.0 / 65.0
Rebounding
42.1 / 39.1
45.0 / 37.0
Steals
8.5 / 7.1
9.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
16.9 / 15.7
15.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTAH
22-60-0
(26.8%)
Margin: -8.4
ATS +/-: -0.2
GS
Advantage
38-46-0
(45.2%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-: -2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTAH
Advantage
41-41-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -8.4
ATS +/-: -0.2
GS
36-48-0
(42.9%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-: -2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
UTAH
49-33-0
O: 59.8% / U: 40.2%
Total +/-: +5.7
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7%
Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GS
UTAH
GS
UTAH
ML
55%
95-79
60%
96-63
58%
49-35
48%
40-43
ATS
58%
101-73
68%
108-51
58%
49-35
48%
40-43
TTL
77%
134-40
75%
119-39-1
100%
84-0
100%
83-0
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