CAL POLY
MUSTANGSCP
6-9 | Road
66
LONG BEACH STATE
BEACHLBSU
4-10 | Home
74
AI Model Win Probability
MUSTANGS
100%
BEACH
0%
MUSTANGS
--
BEACH
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
128.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.0
LONG BEACH STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.0 points (Long Beach State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around LBSU -16.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LBSU)
CP By 1-7 points
4.0%
CP By 8-14 points
0.8%
LBSU By 1-7 points
13.7%
LBSU By 8-14 points
24.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Cal Poly
56
CAL POLY
Long Beach State
72
LONG BEACH STATE
Simulated Score
Cal Poly
65
CAL POLY
Long Beach State
78
LONG BEACH STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Beach
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Beach
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Beach (-2.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Sim
Beach (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u162.5
Win
Proj Total: 128.0
D
Sim
u162.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 26, 2026
LBSU @ CP
92 - 102
Jan 3, 2026
CP @ LBSU
66 - 74
Mar 8, 2025
CP @ LBSU
83 - 69
Jan 25, 2025
LBSU @ CP
69 - 78
Feb 10, 2024
CP @ LBSU
68 - 77
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+84.7% more
Long Beach State: 10.0
vs
Cal Poly: 5.4
Blocks (L5)
+79.3% more
Long Beach State: 4.1
vs
Cal Poly: 2.3
Assists (L5)
+67.2% more
Long Beach State: 17.6
vs
Cal Poly: 10.5
Field Goal % (L5)
+11.4%
Long Beach State: 51.3%
vs
Cal Poly: 39.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CP Score
56.0
66
LBSU Score
72.0
74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.7 / 29.7
24.0 / 33.0
Assists
17.6 / 10.5
16.0 / 15.0
Blocks
4.1 / 2.3
4.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
51.3 / 39.9
50.0 / 34.0
Free Throw %
73.7 / 77.9
71.0 / 72.0
Rebounding
34.0 / 40.7
35.0 / 34.0
Steals
10.0 / 5.4
5.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
11.3 / 14.2
12.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CP
Advantage
14-19-0
(42.4%)
Margin: -2.9
ATS +/-: +1.3
LBSU
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -2.9
ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CP
16-14-1
(53.3%)
Margin: -2.9
ATS +/-: +1.3
LBSU
Advantage
16-13-1
(55.2%)
Margin: -2.9
ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
CP
17-14-0
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2%
Total +/-: +0.8
LBSU
19-10-1
O: 65.5% / U: 34.5%
Total +/-: +4.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LBSU
CP
LBSU
CP
ML
55%
17-14
58%
19-14
65%
20-11
58%
19-14
ATS
68%
21-10
64%
21-12
65%
20-11
58%
19-14
TTL
61%
19-12
61%
20-13
100%
31-0
100%
33-0
Contextual Game News
SMU's Rise from NCAA Scandal to ACC Contender: A New Sheriff in …
The SMU Mustangs mascot will be ready for non-conference play. M…
Cameron Flukey sidelined for Baseball at the Beach.
Nyair McCoy pledges to the University of Mississippi
Sep 6, 2025; Salt Lake City, Utah, USA; Utah Utes quarterback Is…