FAIRFIELD
STAGSFAIR
8-6 | Road
81
CANISIUS
GOLDEN GRIFFINSCAN
5-8 | Home
85
AI Model Win Probability
STAGS
0%
GOLDEN GRIFFINS
100%
STAGS
--
GOLDEN GRIFFINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
137.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-35.0
FAIRFIELD
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +35.0 points (Fairfield)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around FAIR -35.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FAIR)
FAIR By 1-7 points
0.3%
FAIR By 8-14 points
1.7%
CAN By 1-7 points
0.0%
CAN By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Fairfield
86
FAIRFIELD
Canisius
51
CANISIUS
Simulated Score
Fairfield
70
FAIRFIELD
Canisius
75
CANISIUS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Stags
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Golden Griffins
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Stags (+7.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -35.0
D
Sim
Golden Griffins (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u139.5
Loss
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Sim
u139.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 24, 2026
CAN @ FAIR
55 - 61
Jan 2, 2026
FAIR @ CAN
81 - 85
Jan 18, 2025
CAN @ FAIR
78 - 67
Mar 7, 2024
CAN @ FAIR
62 - 74
Jan 15, 2024
FAIR @ CAN
88 - 63
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+57.3% more
Fairfield: 4.4
vs
Canisius: 1.9
Steals (L5)
+25.8% more
Fairfield: 7.1
vs
Canisius: 5.3
Rebounding (L5)
+19.8% more
Fairfield: 41.6
vs
Canisius: 33.4
Free Throw % (L5)
+5.5%
Fairfield: 70.7%
vs
Canisius: 65.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
FAIR Score
86.0
81
CAN Score
51.0
85
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.9 / 36.2
54.0 / 35.0
Assists
11.9 / 11.9
22.0 / 15.0
Blocks
1.9 / 4.4
3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
39.4 / 44.3
44.0 / 42.0
Free Throw %
65.2 / 70.7
74.0 / 74.0
Rebounding
33.4 / 41.6
35.0 / 42.0
Steals
5.3 / 7.1
5.0 / 2.0
Turnovers
17.1 / 9.7
6.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FAIR
Advantage
21-13-0
(61.8%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: +0.7
CAN
10-21-0
(32.3%)
Margin: -7.5
ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FAIR
Advantage
15-18-0
(45.5%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: +0.7
CAN
13-16-0
(44.8%)
Margin: -7.5
ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
FAIR
14-19-0
O: 42.4% / U: 57.6%
Total +/-: -0.2
CAN
8-21-0
O: 27.6% / U: 72.4%
Total +/-: -3.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CAN
FAIR
CAN
FAIR
ML
55%
17-14
55%
18-15
68%
21-10
61%
20-13
ATS
65%
20-11
48%
16-17
68%
21-10
61%
20-13
TTL
58%
18-13
48%
16-17
100%
31-0
100%
33-0
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