OREGON STATE
BEAVERSORST
8-7 | Road
53
PACIFIC
TIGERSPAC
9-6 | Home
84
AI Model Win Probability
BEAVERS
0%
TIGERS
100%
BEAVERS
--
TIGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
179.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
PACIFIC
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around PAC +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PAC)
ORST By 1-7 points
26.2%
ORST By 8-14 points
16.9%
PAC By 1-7 points
24.3%
PAC By 8-14 points
13.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Oregon State
90
OREGON STATE
Pacific
89
PACIFIC
Simulated Score
Oregon State
65
OREGON STATE
Pacific
72
PACIFIC
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Beavers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Tigers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Tigers (+3.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
D
Sim
Tigers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o137.5
Loss
Proj Total: 179.0
D
Sim
u137.5
Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 17, 2026
PAC @ ORST
81 - 64
Jan 2, 2026
ORST @ PAC
53 - 84
Feb 15, 2025
PAC @ ORST
65 - 79
Jan 11, 2025
ORST @ PAC
91 - 55
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+40.2% more
Oregon State: 4.0
vs
Pacific: 2.4
Free Throw % (L5)
+12.2%
Oregon State: 81.2%
vs
Pacific: 69.0%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+4.5%
Oregon State: 40.5%
vs
Pacific: 36.0%
Turnovers (L5)
+30.5% more
Pacific: 15.8
vs
Oregon State: 12.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ORST Score
90.0
53
PAC Score
89.0
84
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.0 / 40.5
52.0 / 35.0
Assists
15.3 / 14.1
20.0 / 10.0
Blocks
2.4 / 4.0
3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
45.4 / 44.8
54.0 / 36.0
Free Throw %
69.0 / 81.2
75.0 / 64.0
Rebounding
38.0 / 29.7
38.0 / 25.0
Steals
5.5 / 5.8
7.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
15.8 / 12.1
10.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ORST
17-16-0
(51.5%)
Margin: -3.0
ATS +/-: -0.1
PAC
Advantage
18-15-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 3.9
ATS +/-: +2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ORST
16-17-0
(48.5%)
Margin: -3.0
ATS +/-: -0.1
PAC
Advantage
16-14-1
(53.3%)
Margin: 3.9
ATS +/-: +2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
ORST
19-14-0
O: 57.6% / U: 42.4%
Total +/-: +1.1
PAC
10-19-2
O: 34.5% / U: 65.5%
Total +/-: -2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PAC
ORST
PAC
ORST
ML
45%
15-18
45%
15-18
80%
24-6
59%
19-13
ATS
55%
18-15
48%
16-17
80%
24-6
59%
19-13
TTL
58%
19-14
55%
18-15
100%
30-0
100%
32-0
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