Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Eagles @ Lions MORE @ LIN

MOREHEAD STATE

EAGLESMORE

6-7  |  Road

64
FINAL
Thu, Jan 1 • 4:30 PM ET
Hyland Arena
View Odds Details →

LINDENWOOD

LIONSLIN

8-5  |  Home

77
AI Model Win Probability
EAGLES
0%
📊
LIONS
100%
EAGLES --
LIONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
170.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-20.0
MOREHEAD STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +20.0 points (Morehead State)
EaglesMORE (-3.5) 0 LionsLIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Eagles Cover

97.7%

Lions Cover

2.3%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MORE -20.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MORE)

MORE By 1-7 points

8.0%

MORE By 8-14 points

18.6%

LIN By 1-7 points

1.7%

LIN By 8-14 points

0.3%

AI Model Projected Score
95
MOREHEAD STATE
75
LINDENWOOD
Simulated Score
75
MOREHEAD STATE
68
LINDENWOOD
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Eagles Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Eagles Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Eagles (-7.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -20.0
D
Sim Eagles (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o147.5 Loss
Proj Total: 170.0
D
Sim u147.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 31, 2026 LIN @ MORE 79 - 78
Jan 1, 2026 MORE @ LIN 64 - 77
Mar 5, 2025 MORE @ LIN 65 - 73
Feb 13, 2025 MORE @ LIN 60 - 73
Jan 18, 2025 LIN @ MORE 65 - 82
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +3.9%
Morehead State: 69.6% vs Lindenwood: 65.7%
Blocks (L5) +97.9% more
Lindenwood: 5.6 vs Morehead State: 2.8
Assists (L5) +28.3% more
Lindenwood: 15.6 vs Morehead State: 12.1
Rebounding (L5) +21.2% more
Lindenwood: 43.7 vs Morehead State: 36.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MORE Score 95.0 64
LIN Score 75.0 77
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.4 / 31.2 40.0 / 21.0
Assists 15.6 / 12.1 19.0 / 10.0
Blocks 5.6 / 2.8 3.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 47.6 / 43.1 53.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 65.7 / 69.6 50.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 43.7 / 36.1 32.0 / 40.0
Steals 7.5 / 8.2 7.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 12.0 / 12.4 10.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
13%MONEY87%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
47%MONEY53%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
19%MONEY81%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MORE Advantage
20-13-0 (60.6%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: +0.7
LIN
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 5.1 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MORE Advantage
17-13-0 (56.7%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: +0.7
LIN
14-15-1 (48.3%)
Margin: 5.1 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
MORE
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: +3.5
LIN
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3% Total +/-: -0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LIN
MORE
LIN
MORE
ML
47% 15-17
62% 20-12
61% 19-12
68% 21-10
ATS
34% 11-21
59% 19-13
61% 19-12
68% 21-10
TTL
53% 17-15
53% 17-15
100% 31-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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