Home / NFL Projections NFL / Jets @ Bills NYJ @ BUF

NEW YORK

JETSNYJ

3-13  |  Road

8
FINAL
Sun, Jan 4 • 4:25 PM ET
Highmark Stadium
View Odds Details →

BUFFALO

BILLSBUF

11-5  |  Home

35
AI Model Win Probability
JETS
100%
📊
BILLS
0%
JETS --
BILLS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
26.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
BUFFALO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Buffalo)
JetsNYJ (-3.5) 0 BillsBUF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jets Cover

19.6%

Bills Cover

80.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around BUF -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUF)

NYJ By 1-6 points

9.3%

NYJ By 7-13 points

5.9%

BUF By 1-6 points

14.2%

BUF By 7-13 points

19.5%

AI Model Projected Score
7
NEW YORK
19
BUFFALO
Simulated Score
24
NEW YORK
20
BUFFALO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bills Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Jets Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bills (-11.5) Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim Jets (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u39.0 Loss
Proj Total: 26.0
D
Sim u39.0 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 4, 2026 NYJ @ BUF 8 - 35
Sep 14, 2025 BUF @ NYJ 30 - 10
Dec 29, 2024 NYJ @ BUF 14 - 40
Oct 14, 2024 BUF @ NYJ 23 - 20
Nov 19, 2023 NYJ @ BUF 6 - 32
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +73.4% more
Buffalo: 174.6 vs New York: 100.7
Total Yards (L5) +54.6% more
Buffalo: 385.2 vs New York: 249.3
First Downs (L5) +47.0% more
Buffalo: 21.3 vs New York: 14.5
Yards Per Play (L5) +44.9% more
Buffalo: 6.1 vs New York: 4.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYJ Score 7.0 8
BUF Score 19.0 35
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
24%MONEY76%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
18%TICKETS82%
23%MONEY77%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
73%MONEY27%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYJ
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +1.9
BUF Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYJ
2-1-1 (66.7%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +1.9
BUF Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
NYJ
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -4.3
BUF
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +8.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BUF
NYJ
BUF
NYJ
ML
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
ATS
25% 1-3
33% 1-2-1
25% 1-3
33% 1-2-1
TTL
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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