Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Green Wave @ Pirates TULN @ ECU

TULANE

GREEN WAVETULN

9-4  |  Road

79
FINAL
Wed, Dec 31 • 12:00 PM ET
Minges Coliseum
View Odds Details →

EAST CAROLINA

PIRATESECU

5-8  |  Home

70
AI Model Win Probability
GREEN WAVE
100%
📊
PIRATES
0%
GREEN WAVE --
PIRATES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
119.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
EAST CAROLINA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (East Carolina)
Green WaveTULN (-3.5) 0 PiratesECU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Green Wave Cover

46.0%

Pirates Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ECU -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ECU)

TULN By 1-7 points

24.3%

TULN By 8-14 points

13.7%

ECU By 1-7 points

26.2%

ECU By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
59
TULANE
60
EAST CAROLINA
Simulated Score
68
TULANE
75
EAST CAROLINA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Pirates Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Pirates Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Pirates (+1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Pirates (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u144.5 Loss
Proj Total: 119.0
D
Sim u144.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 31, 2025 TULN @ ECU 79 - 70
Mar 6, 2025 TULN @ ECU 64 - 73
Feb 19, 2025 ECU @ TULN 81 - 86
Feb 18, 2024 TULN @ ECU 67 - 81
Mar 3, 2023 ECU @ TULN 78 - 81
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +15.9% more
East Carolina: 14.0 vs Tulane: 12.1
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +2.7%
East Carolina: 21.5% vs Tulane: 18.9%
Assists (L5) +11.1% more
Tulane: 11.6 vs East Carolina: 10.3
Steals (L5) +9.5% more
Tulane: 8.8 vs East Carolina: 8.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TULN Score 59.0 79
ECU Score 60.0 70
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 21.5 / 18.9 30.0 / 48.0
Assists 10.3 / 11.6 12.0 / 15.0
Blocks 3.8 / 4.0 3.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 38.1 / 38.9 41.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 70.6 / 76.8 63.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 36.1 / 34.6 35.0 / 39.0
Steals 8.0 / 8.8 6.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 14.0 / 12.1 8.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
66%MONEY34%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
58%MONEY42%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
46%MONEY54%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TULN Advantage
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: -3.2 ATS +/-: -2.7
ECU
11-20-0 (35.5%)
Margin: -5.9 ATS +/-: -2.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TULN Advantage
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -3.2 ATS +/-: -2.7
ECU
12-18-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -5.9 ATS +/-: -2.5
⚖️ Over/Under
TULN
13-18-1
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1% Total +/-: -1.2
ECU
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: +3.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ECU
TULN
ECU
TULN
ML
55% 17-14
70% 23-10
55% 17-14
47% 15-17
ATS
52% 16-15
62% 20-12-1
55% 17-14
47% 15-17
TTL
61% 19-12
55% 18-15
100% 31-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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