Home / NBA Projections NBA / Warriors @ Celtics GS @ BOS

GOLDEN STATE

WARRIORSGS

6-1  |  Road

118
FINAL
Wed, Nov 6 • 7:30 PM ET
TD Garden
View Odds Details →

BOSTON

CELTICSBOS

7-1  |  Home

112
AI Model Win Probability
WARRIORS
100%
📊
CELTICS
0%
WARRIORS --
CELTICS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
250.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.1
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.1 points (Boston)
WarriorsGS (-3.5) 0 CelticsBOS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Warriors Cover

6.6%

Celtics Cover

93.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BOS -15.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)

GS By 1-7 points

4.7%

GS By 8-14 points

1.0%

BOS By 1-7 points

15.1%

BOS By 8-14 points

25.2%

AI Model Projected Score
117.65
GOLDEN STATE
132.75
BOSTON
Simulated Score
GOLDEN STATE
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Celtics Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Celtics (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -15.1
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 250.4
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 18, 2026 GS @ BOS 99 - 120
Feb 19, 2026 BOS @ GS 121 - 110
Jan 20, 2025 BOS @ GS 125 - 85
Nov 6, 2024 GS @ BOS 118 - 112
Mar 3, 2024 GS @ BOS 88 - 140
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +40.7% more
Boston: 10.2 vs Golden State: 7.2
Turnovers (L5) +8.4% more
Boston: 12.8 vs Golden State: 11.8
Free Throw % (L5) +7.1%
Boston: 79.3% vs Golden State: 72.2%
Blocks (L5) +17.9% more
Golden State: 6.6 vs Boston: 5.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GS Score 117.7 118
BOS Score 132.8 112
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.6 / 38.1 35.2 / 41.2
Assists 24.2 / 29.3 22.0 / 22.0
Blocks 5.4 / 6.6 3.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 46.2 / 47.6 42.2 / 46.2
Free Throw % 79.3 / 72.2 81.0 / 83.3
Rebounding 45.6 / 48.7 47.0 / 53.0
Steals 10.2 / 7.2 5.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 12.8 / 11.8 12.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GS
38-46-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
BOS Advantage
59-30-0 (66.3%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +2.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GS
36-48-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
BOS Advantage
51-38-0 (57.3%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +2.2
⚖️ Over/Under
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7% Total +/-: +1.9
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0% Total +/-: -3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
GS
BOS
GS
ML
57% 61-46
55% 95-79
53% 47-41
58% 49-35
ATS
59% 61-43-3
58% 101-73
53% 47-41
58% 49-35
TTL
56% 60-47
77% 134-40
100% 88-0
100% 84-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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