Home / NBA Projections NBA / Warriors @ Cavaliers GS @ CLE

GOLDEN STATE

WARRIORSGS

7-1  |  Road

117
FINAL
Fri, Nov 8 • 7:30 PM ET
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CLEVELAND

CAVALIERSCLE

9-0  |  Home

136
AI Model Win Probability
WARRIORS
0%
📊
CAVALIERS
100%
WARRIORS --
CAVALIERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
243.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.6
GOLDEN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.6 points (Golden State)
WarriorsGS (-3.5) 0 CavaliersCLE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Warriors Cover

64.2%

Cavaliers Cover

35.8%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around GS -3.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GS)

GS By 1-7 points

27.3%

GS By 8-14 points

21.1%

CLE By 1-7 points

20.7%

CLE By 8-14 points

9.8%

AI Model Projected Score
123.73
GOLDEN STATE
120.1
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
GOLDEN STATE
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Warriors Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Warriors (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.6
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 243.8
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 2, 2026 CLE @ GS 118 - 111
Dec 6, 2025 GS @ CLE 99 - 94
Dec 30, 2024 CLE @ GS 113 - 95
Nov 8, 2024 GS @ CLE 117 - 136
Nov 11, 2023 CLE @ GS 118 - 110
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +13.3% more
Golden State: 50.1 vs Cleveland: 43.5
Free Throw % (L5) +5.0%
Golden State: 75.9% vs Cleveland: 70.9%
Assists (L5) +11.9% more
Cleveland: 30.1 vs Golden State: 26.9
Steals (L5) +11.6% more
Cleveland: 7.6 vs Golden State: 6.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GS Score 123.7 117
CLE Score 120.1 136
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 43.9 / 39.1 47.6 / 31.0
Assists 30.1 / 26.9 33.0 / 32.0
Blocks 5.9 / 6.1 7.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 51.8 / 47.1 54.1 / 48.0
Free Throw % 70.9 / 75.9 85.7 / 71.4
Rebounding 43.5 / 50.1 43.0 / 40.0
Steals 7.6 / 6.8 7.0 / 14.0
Turnovers 11.6 / 11.5 20.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GS
38-46-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
CLE Advantage
60-40-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: -2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GS Advantage
36-48-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
CLE
40-60-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: -2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7% Total +/-: +1.9
CLE
52-48-0
O: 52.0% / U: 48.0% Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
GS
CLE
GS
ML
60% 69-46
55% 95-79
56% 55-44
58% 49-35
ATS
67% 75-37-3
58% 101-73
56% 55-44
58% 49-35
TTL
59% 68-47
77% 134-40
100% 99-0
100% 84-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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