Home / NBA Projections NBA / Kings @ Warriors SAC @ GS

SACRAMENTO

KINGSSAC

16-19  |  Road

129
FINAL
Sun, Jan 5 • 8:30 PM ET
Chase Center
View Odds Details →

GOLDEN STATE

WARRIORSGS

18-16  |  Home

99
AI Model Win Probability
KINGS
0%
📊
WARRIORS
100%
KINGS --
WARRIORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
227.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
SACRAMENTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Sacramento)
KingsSAC (-3.5) 0 WarriorsGS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Kings Cover

50.7%

Warriors Cover

49.3%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SAC -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SAC)

SAC By 1-7 points

25.5%

SAC By 8-14 points

15.6%

GS By 1-7 points

25.2%

GS By 8-14 points

15.0%

AI Model Projected Score
113.58
SACRAMENTO
113.41
GOLDEN STATE
Simulated Score
SACRAMENTO
GOLDEN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Kings Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Kings (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -0.2
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 10, 2026 GS @ SAC 118 - 124
Apr 7, 2026 SAC @ GS 105 - 110
Jan 9, 2026 SAC @ GS 103 - 137
Nov 5, 2025 GS @ SAC 116 - 121
Mar 13, 2025 SAC @ GS 104 - 130
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +12.5%
Sacramento: 83.3% vs Golden State: 70.8%
Blocks (L5) +31.5% more
Golden State: 6.3 vs Sacramento: 4.8
Turnovers (L5) +13.2% more
Golden State: 14.7 vs Sacramento: 13.0
Assists (L5) +8.6% more
Golden State: 30.5 vs Sacramento: 28.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SAC Score 113.6 129
GS Score 113.4 99
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 42.6 / 35.4 34.3 / 44.2
Assists 30.5 / 28.1 22.0 / 31.0
Blocks 6.3 / 4.8 3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 48.3 / 47.4 45.7 / 51.7
Free Throw % 70.8 / 83.3 72.2 / 90.9
Rebounding 41.0 / 43.7 35.0 / 43.0
Steals 8.8 / 8.8 10.0 / 15.0
Turnovers 14.7 / 13.0 0.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SAC
22-60-0 (26.8%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
GS Advantage
38-46-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SAC Advantage
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
GS
36-48-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
SAC
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +0.8
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7% Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GS
SAC
GS
SAC
ML
55% 95-79
55% 55-45
58% 49-35
61% 50-32
ATS
58% 101-73
54% 52-45-3
58% 49-35
61% 50-32
TTL
77% 134-40
58% 57-42-1
100% 84-0
100% 82-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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