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MIAMI

HEATMIA

17-17  |  Road

114
FINAL
Tue, Jan 7 • 10:00 PM ET
Chase Center
View Odds Details →

GOLDEN STATE

WARRIORSGS

18-17  |  Home

98
AI Model Win Probability
HEAT
100%
📊
WARRIORS
0%
HEAT --
WARRIORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
213.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.7
GOLDEN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.7 points (Golden State)
HeatMIA (-3.5) 0 WarriorsGS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Heat Cover

22.1%

Warriors Cover

77.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around GS -7.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GS)

MIA By 1-7 points

14.2%

MIA By 8-14 points

5.1%

GS By 1-7 points

25.6%

GS By 8-14 points

26.0%

AI Model Projected Score
103.08
MIAMI
110.77
GOLDEN STATE
Simulated Score
MIAMI
GOLDEN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Warriors Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Warriors (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.7
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 213.9
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 19, 2026 MIA @ GS 112 - 135
Nov 19, 2025 GS @ MIA 96 - 110
Mar 25, 2025 GS @ MIA 86 - 112
Jan 7, 2025 MIA @ GS 114 - 98
Mar 26, 2024 GS @ MIA 113 - 92
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +8.1%
Golden State: 39.8% vs Miami: 31.7%
Turnovers (L5) +32.6% more
Miami: 14.6 vs Golden State: 9.8
Rebounding (L5) +9.6% more
Miami: 43.1 vs Golden State: 39.0
Free Throw % (L5) +7.0%
Miami: 78.3% vs Golden State: 71.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIA Score 103.1 114
GS Score 110.8 98
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.8 / 31.7 28.0 / 40.0
Assists 27.7 / 26.7 28.0 / 32.0
Blocks 5.2 / 5.3 6.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 47.4 / 46.4 40.8 / 47.3
Free Throw % 71.3 / 78.3 80.0 / 70.6
Rebounding 39.0 / 43.1 52.0 / 48.0
Steals 9.2 / 9.8 9.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 9.8 / 14.6 12.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA Advantage
43-40-0 (51.8%)
Margin: 2.3 ATS +/-: +1.3
GS
38-46-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA Advantage
47-36-0 (56.6%)
Margin: 2.3 ATS +/-: +1.3
GS
36-48-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4% Total +/-: +3.0
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7% Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GS
MIA
GS
MIA
ML
55% 95-79
48% 46-50
58% 49-35
59% 48-34
ATS
58% 101-73
51% 49-47
58% 49-35
59% 48-34
TTL
77% 134-40
59% 57-39
100% 84-0
100% 82-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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