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BOSTON

CELTICSBOS

29-13  |  Road

125
FINAL
Mon, Jan 20 • 5:00 PM ET
Chase Center
View Odds Details →

GOLDEN STATE

WARRIORSGS

21-20  |  Home

85
AI Model Win Probability
CELTICS
0%
📊
WARRIORS
100%
CELTICS --
WARRIORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
222.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.2
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 points (Boston)
CelticsBOS (-3.5) 0 WarriorsGS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Celtics Cover

54.8%

Warriors Cover

45.2%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around BOS -1.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)

BOS By 1-7 points

26.4%

BOS By 8-14 points

17.3%

GS By 1-7 points

24.0%

GS By 8-14 points

13.4%

AI Model Projected Score
111.96
BOSTON
110.75
GOLDEN STATE
Simulated Score
BOSTON
GOLDEN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Celtics Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Celtics (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -1.2
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 222.7
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 18, 2026 GS @ BOS 99 - 120
Feb 19, 2026 BOS @ GS 121 - 110
Jan 20, 2025 BOS @ GS 125 - 85
Nov 6, 2024 GS @ BOS 118 - 112
Mar 3, 2024 GS @ BOS 88 - 140
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +5.0%
Boston: 80.6% vs Golden State: 75.6%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +2.9%
Golden State: 37.1% vs Boston: 34.2%
Field Goal % (L5) +2.0%
Golden State: 45.5% vs Boston: 43.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOS Score 112.0 125
GS Score 110.8 85
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.1 / 34.2 26.4 / 41.7
Assists 25.4 / 23.8 28.0 / 33.0
Blocks 5.4 / 5.8 3.0 / 9.0
Field Goal % 45.5 / 43.5 34.8 / 53.3
Free Throw % 75.6 / 80.6 63.6 / 87.5
Rebounding 48.2 / 47.4 38.0 / 50.0
Steals 8.3 / 8.5 8.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 12.2 / 12.0 12.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS Advantage
59-30-0 (66.3%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +2.2
GS
38-46-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS Advantage
51-38-0 (57.3%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +2.2
GS
36-48-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0% Total +/-: -3.2
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7% Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GS
BOS
GS
BOS
ML
55% 95-79
57% 61-46
58% 49-35
53% 47-41
ATS
58% 101-73
59% 61-43-3
58% 49-35
53% 47-41
TTL
77% 134-40
56% 60-47
100% 84-0
100% 88-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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