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GOLDEN STATE

WARRIORSGS

21-21  |  Road

117
FINAL
Wed, Jan 22 • 10:00 PM ET
Golden 1 Center
View Odds Details →

SACRAMENTO

KINGSSAC

22-20  |  Home

123
AI Model Win Probability
WARRIORS
100%
📊
KINGS
0%
WARRIORS --
KINGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
231.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.5
SACRAMENTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.5 points (Sacramento)
WarriorsGS (-3.5) 0 KingsSAC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Warriors Cover

22.8%

Kings Cover

77.2%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SAC -7.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SAC)

GS By 1-7 points

14.6%

GS By 8-14 points

5.3%

SAC By 1-7 points

25.8%

SAC By 8-14 points

25.8%

AI Model Projected Score
111.79
GOLDEN STATE
119.26
SACRAMENTO
Simulated Score
GOLDEN STATE
SACRAMENTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Kings Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Kings (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.5
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 231.1
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 10, 2026 GS @ SAC 118 - 124
Apr 7, 2026 SAC @ GS 105 - 110
Jan 9, 2026 SAC @ GS 103 - 137
Nov 5, 2025 GS @ SAC 116 - 121
Mar 13, 2025 SAC @ GS 104 - 130
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +11.3%
Sacramento: 82.9% vs Golden State: 71.6%
Assists (L5) +10.3% more
Sacramento: 29.0 vs Golden State: 26.3
Rebounding (L5) +8.9% more
Sacramento: 48.8 vs Golden State: 44.8
Field Goal % (L5) +5.7%
Sacramento: 47.6% vs Golden State: 41.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GS Score 111.8 117
SAC Score 119.3 123
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.4 / 33.5 36.7 / 45.8
Assists 29.0 / 26.3 24.0 / 31.0
Blocks 4.3 / 4.6 7.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 47.6 / 41.9 50.6 / 46.7
Free Throw % 82.9 / 71.6 93.8 / 69.2
Rebounding 48.8 / 44.8 38.0 / 44.0
Steals 8.1 / 8.2 9.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 11.5 / 12.1 8.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GS Advantage
38-46-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
SAC
22-60-0 (26.8%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GS
36-48-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
SAC Advantage
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
⚖️ Over/Under
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7% Total +/-: +1.9
SAC
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SAC
GS
SAC
GS
ML
55% 55-45
55% 95-79
61% 50-32
58% 49-35
ATS
54% 52-45-3
58% 101-73
61% 50-32
58% 49-35
TTL
58% 57-42-1
77% 134-40
100% 82-0
100% 84-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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