GOLDEN STATE
WARRIORSGS
25-24 | Road
128
UTAH
JAZZUTAH
11-37 | Home
131
AI Model Win Probability
WARRIORS
0%
JAZZ
100%
WARRIORS
--
JAZZ
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
220.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.5
GOLDEN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.5 points (Golden State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around GS -6.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GS)
GS By 1-7 points
26.5%
GS By 8-14 points
24.9%
UTAH By 1-7 points
16.1%
UTAH By 8-14 points
6.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Golden State
113.63
GOLDEN STATE
Utah
107.09
UTAH
Simulated Score
Golden State
GOLDEN STATE
Utah
UTAH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Warriors
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Warriors (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.5
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 220.7
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 9, 2026
GS @ UTAH
116 - 119
Jan 28, 2026
GS @ UTAH
140 - 124
Jan 3, 2026
UTAH @ GS
114 - 123
Nov 24, 2025
UTAH @ GS
117 - 134
Feb 5, 2025
GS @ UTAH
128 - 131
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+36.8% more
Golden State: 8.5
vs
Utah: 5.4
Blocks (L5)
+43.8% more
Utah: 4.8
vs
Golden State: 3.4
Turnovers (L5)
+30.1% more
Utah: 16.7
vs
Golden State: 12.8
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.8%
Utah: 45.7%
vs
Golden State: 42.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
GS Score
113.6
128
UTAH Score
107.1
131
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.0 / 34.4
35.1 / 35.4
Assists
27.5 / 27.5
30.0 / 33.0
Blocks
4.8 / 3.4
5.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
45.7 / 42.9
52.2 / 46.0
Free Throw %
76.2 / 73.5
81.5 / 70.4
Rebounding
47.8 / 45.1
48.0 / 41.0
Steals
5.4 / 8.5
5.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
16.7 / 12.8
13.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GS
Advantage
38-46-0
(45.2%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-: -2.0
UTAH
22-60-0
(26.8%)
Margin: -8.4
ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GS
36-48-0
(42.9%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-: -2.0
UTAH
Advantage
41-41-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -8.4
ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7%
Total +/-: +1.9
UTAH
49-33-0
O: 59.8% / U: 40.2%
Total +/-: +5.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTAH
GS
UTAH
GS
ML
60%
96-63
55%
95-79
48%
40-43
58%
49-35
ATS
68%
108-51
58%
101-73
48%
40-43
58%
49-35
TTL
75%
119-39-1
77%
134-40
100%
83-0
100%
84-0
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