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GOLDEN STATE

WARRIORSGS

28-27  |  Road

132
FINAL
Fri, Feb 21 • 10:00 PM ET
Golden 1 Center
View Odds Details →

SACRAMENTO

KINGSSAC

28-27  |  Home

108
AI Model Win Probability
WARRIORS
100%
📊
KINGS
0%
WARRIORS --
KINGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
230.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.4
SACRAMENTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.4 points (Sacramento)
WarriorsGS (-3.5) 0 KingsSAC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Warriors Cover

29.5%

Kings Cover

70.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SAC -5.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SAC)

GS By 1-7 points

17.9%

GS By 8-14 points

7.5%

SAC By 1-7 points

27.1%

SAC By 8-14 points

23.5%

AI Model Projected Score
112.38
GOLDEN STATE
117.76
SACRAMENTO
Simulated Score
GOLDEN STATE
SACRAMENTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Kings Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Kings (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.4
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 230.1
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 10, 2026 GS @ SAC 118 - 124
Apr 7, 2026 SAC @ GS 105 - 110
Jan 9, 2026 SAC @ GS 103 - 137
Nov 5, 2025 GS @ SAC 116 - 121
Mar 13, 2025 SAC @ GS 104 - 130
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +20.7% more
Sacramento: 14.9 vs Golden State: 12.4
Rebounding (L5) +13.5% more
Sacramento: 51.0 vs Golden State: 45.0
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +4.5%
Sacramento: 34.5% vs Golden State: 30.0%
Field Goal % (L5) +4.4%
Sacramento: 47.0% vs Golden State: 42.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GS Score 112.4 132
SAC Score 117.8 108
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.5 / 30.0 34.4 / 46.5
Assists 30.2 / 28.2 26.0 / 40.0
Blocks 4.0 / 4.9 3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 47.0 / 42.5 50.6 / 53.8
Free Throw % 78.9 / 82.4 94.4 / 100.0
Rebounding 51.0 / 45.0 39.0 / 35.0
Steals 6.4 / 11.0 8.0 / 13.0
Turnovers 14.9 / 12.4 24.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GS Advantage
38-46-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
SAC
22-60-0 (26.8%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GS
36-48-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
SAC Advantage
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
⚖️ Over/Under
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7% Total +/-: +1.9
SAC
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SAC
GS
SAC
GS
ML
55% 55-45
55% 95-79
61% 50-32
58% 49-35
ATS
54% 52-45-3
58% 101-73
61% 50-32
58% 49-35
TTL
58% 57-42-1
77% 134-40
100% 82-0
100% 84-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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