Home / NBA Projections NBA / Kings @ Warriors SAC @ GS

SACRAMENTO

KINGSSAC

33-31  |  Road

104
FINAL
Thu, Mar 13 • 10:00 PM ET
Chase Center
View Odds Details →

GOLDEN STATE

WARRIORSGS

37-28  |  Home

130
AI Model Win Probability
KINGS
0%
📊
WARRIORS
100%
KINGS --
WARRIORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
244.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
SACRAMENTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Sacramento)
KingsSAC (-3.5) 0 WarriorsGS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Kings Cover

50.8%

Warriors Cover

49.2%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SAC -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SAC)

SAC By 1-7 points

25.5%

SAC By 8-14 points

15.6%

GS By 1-7 points

25.2%

GS By 8-14 points

15.0%

AI Model Projected Score
122.14
SACRAMENTO
121.95
GOLDEN STATE
Simulated Score
SACRAMENTO
GOLDEN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Kings Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Kings (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -0.2
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 244.1
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 10, 2026 GS @ SAC 118 - 124
Apr 7, 2026 SAC @ GS 105 - 110
Jan 9, 2026 SAC @ GS 103 - 137
Nov 5, 2025 GS @ SAC 116 - 121
Mar 13, 2025 SAC @ GS 104 - 130
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +61.5% more
Golden State: 11.1 vs Sacramento: 6.9
Blocks (L5) +30.7% more
Golden State: 4.8 vs Sacramento: 3.7
Turnovers (L5) +28.5% more
Golden State: 16.4 vs Sacramento: 12.7
Assists (L5) +28.4% more
Golden State: 31.4 vs Sacramento: 24.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SAC Score 122.1 104
GS Score 122.0 130
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.5 / 34.4 56.4 / 37.8
Assists 31.4 / 24.5 35.0 / 25.0
Blocks 4.8 / 3.7 5.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 47.9 / 46.4 57.7 / 46.8
Free Throw % 86.1 / 81.6 75.0 / 72.7
Rebounding 44.2 / 43.6 43.0 / 30.0
Steals 11.1 / 6.9 8.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 16.4 / 12.7 16.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SAC
22-60-0 (26.8%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
GS Advantage
38-46-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SAC Advantage
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
GS
36-48-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
SAC
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +0.8
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7% Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GS
SAC
GS
SAC
ML
55% 95-79
55% 55-45
58% 49-35
61% 50-32
ATS
58% 101-73
54% 52-45-3
58% 49-35
61% 50-32
TTL
77% 134-40
58% 57-42-1
100% 84-0
100% 82-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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