Home / NBA Projections NBA / Warriors @ Heat GS @ MIA

GOLDEN STATE

WARRIORSGS

41-30  |  Road

86
FINAL
Tue, Mar 25 • 7:30 PM ET
Kaseya Center
View Odds Details →

MIAMI

HEATMIA

30-41  |  Home

112
AI Model Win Probability
WARRIORS
0%
📊
HEAT
100%
WARRIORS --
HEAT --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
217.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.9
GOLDEN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.9 points (Golden State)
WarriorsGS (-3.5) 0 HeatMIA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Warriors Cover

68.9%

Heat Cover

31.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around GS -4.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GS)

GS By 1-7 points

27.3%

GS By 8-14 points

22.9%

MIA By 1-7 points

18.7%

MIA By 8-14 points

8.1%

AI Model Projected Score
111.06
GOLDEN STATE
106.13
MIAMI
Simulated Score
GOLDEN STATE
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Warriors Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Warriors (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.9
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 217.2
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 19, 2026 MIA @ GS 112 - 135
Nov 19, 2025 GS @ MIA 96 - 110
Mar 25, 2025 GS @ MIA 86 - 112
Jan 7, 2025 MIA @ GS 114 - 98
Mar 26, 2024 GS @ MIA 113 - 92
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +15.1% more
Golden State: 41.3 vs Miami: 35.1
Blocks (L5) +14.7% more
Golden State: 5.3 vs Miami: 4.5
Steals (L5) +12.7% more
Golden State: 10.0 vs Miami: 8.7
Assists (L5) +10.4% more
Golden State: 28.0 vs Miami: 25.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GS Score 111.1 86
MIA Score 106.1 112
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.7 / 39.2 68.0 / 23.7
Assists 25.1 / 28.0 26.0 / 20.0
Blocks 4.5 / 5.3 5.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 51.3 / 45.2 55.8 / 39.8
Free Throw % 81.5 / 79.2 75.0 / 68.8
Rebounding 35.1 / 41.3 42.0 / 38.0
Steals 8.7 / 10.0 8.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 15.5 / 14.3 18.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GS
38-46-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
MIA Advantage
43-40-0 (51.8%)
Margin: 2.3 ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GS
36-48-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
MIA Advantage
47-36-0 (56.6%)
Margin: 2.3 ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7% Total +/-: +1.9
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4% Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
GS
MIA
GS
ML
48% 46-50
55% 95-79
59% 48-34
58% 49-35
ATS
51% 49-47
58% 101-73
59% 48-34
58% 49-35
TTL
59% 57-39
77% 134-40
100% 82-0
100% 84-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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